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Middle East Oil Supply in August 2013

Source: OPEC 9/9/2013, Location: Middle East

Middle East oil supply is expected to decrease by 100 tb/d from 2012 to average 1.40 mb/d in 2013, representing a minor downward revision of 5 tb/d from the previous month. Within the Middle East, supply from Oman and Bahrain is expected to grow in 2013, while output in Yemen and Syria is seen to decline.

Oman’s production is forecast to average 0.94 mb/d in 2013, representing growth of 20 tb/d from the previous year and flat from the last MOMR. Yemen’s oil supply is seen to average 0.17 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 10 tb/d from previous year and a downward revision of 5 tb/d from last month. The downward revision came on the back of continued damages on Marib pipeline that led to production shutdown. Reports suggested the Yemen oil production dropped to 100 tb/d in May due to various attacks. Syria’s oil production is estimated to average 90 tb/d in 2013, a decline of 0.12 mb/d compared to previous year and unchanged from last MOMR.

The Middle East supply forecast remains associated with a high level of risk mainly due to unavailability of data and the political situation. On a quarterly basis, Middle East supply is seen to average 1.47 mb/d, 1.37 mb/d, 1.40 mb/d and 1.35 mb/d, respectively.

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