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World Oil Supply - Oct 13

Source: OPEC_RP131007 10/10/2013, Location: Not categorized

Non-OPEC
Estimate for 2013
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.14 mb/d in 2013 to average 54.06 mb/d. This represents an upward revision of 60 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Historical revisions were introduced in addition to many adjustments applied to the forecast in 2013, with more weight on the second half. Revisions to updated actual production data in the first half and part of the third quarter affected the outlook along with various other changes in the second half. The largest revision was applied to OECD Americas supply figures, mainly on updated production data. All 2013 quarters were revised up, as the various upward revisions seen in some countries’ supply forecasts offset the downward adjustments.

OECD Americas is expected to have the highest growth among all non-OPEC regions in 2013, followed by the FSU, Africa and Latin America, while OECD Europe and Middle East are projected to be the regions with the biggest supply declines.

OECD supply is forecast to rise in 2013, as growth in OECD Americas is seen to more than offset the declines in OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific. The US, Canada, South Sudan and Sudan, Russia, and Colombia are expected to be the main drivers of supply growth in 2013, while Syria, the UK, Norway and Australia are seen as having the largest declines.

On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply is seen to average 53.85 mb/d, 53.76 mb/d, 54.07 mb/d and 54.55 mb/d, respectively. According to preliminary and estimated data, non-OPEC oil supply averaged 53.89 mb/d during the first three quarters of 2013, indicating growth of 1.24 mb/d, compared with the same period of 2012.

Forecast for 2014
Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 1.21 mb/d in 2014 to average 55.27 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 50 tb/d from the previous month. Despite this upward adjustment, the growth in non-OPEC supply was revised down by 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Changes to the 2013 supply estimate were carried over to 2014, hence affecting the total non-OPEC supply figure.

OECD Americas continues to be the area with the highest expected growth among all non-OPEC regions, supported by forecasted increases in the US and Canada. Latin America is next in terms of growth due to projected supply increases from Brazil and Colombia. OECD Western Europe’s supply is expected to experience the biggest decline in 2014 compared with other non-OPEC regions.

On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply in 2014 is expected to average 54.83 mb/d, 54.75 mb/d, 55.18 mb/d and 56.29 mb/d, respectively.

Revisions to the 2014 forecast
The main changes to the non-OPEC supply forecast in 2014 were experienced by the US, the UK and China. US oil supply in 2014 is expected to average 11.64 mb/d, an increase of 0.64 mb/d from 2013, indicating an upward revision of 175 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The change was driven mainly by updated actual and forecasted data for 2013. The outlooks for production from the UK and China in 2014 were revised down on the back of updated data in 2013, which provided an insight into the expectations for 2014. The US remains the country with the highest expected growth in 2014, followed by Canada, Brazil, and South Sudan and Sudan, while the UK, Norway and Syria are seen to experience the largest declines in 2014 among all non-OPEC countries.

OECD
Total OECD oil supply is expected to increase by 0.86 mb/d to average 21.93 mb/d in 2013, an upward revision of 90 tb/d from the previous month. There were a few upward and downward revisions to regional and national oil supply outlooks in 2013, with the upward revisions more than offsetting the downward ones. All quarters, except the first quarter, experienced revisions, with the third and fourth quarters having the largest. An upward revision in OECD Americas more than offset the downward revisions to OECD Europe, while the OECD Asia Pacific supply forecast remained unchanged from the previous MOMR. The US supply forecast had an upward revision that more than offset the downward adjustments in Canada and the UK.

On a quarterly basis, OECD oil supply is expected to average 21.70 mb/d, 21.69 mb/d, 22.06 mb/d and 22.24 mb/d, respectively.

OECD Americas
Oil supply from OECD Americas is forecast to increase by 1.15 mb/d in 2013 to average 17.89 mb/d, an upward revision of 115 tb/d from the previous month. The main upward revisions to OECD Americas oil supply came in the second half of 2013, in addition to historical revisions, on the back on updated production figures in the third quarter that were carried over to the rest of the period. The upward revision confirms OECD Americas as the region with the highest growth among all the non-OPEC regions in 2013. Strong supply growth is now expected from the US and Canada, while Mexico’s supply is seen to decline slightly in 2013 compared with the previous year.

On a quarterly basis, OECD Americas oil supply is believed to average 17.63 mb/d, 17.63 mb/d, 18.11 mb/d and 18.18 mb/d, respectively.

US
US oil supply is expected to grow by 0.96 mb/d in 2013, the highest growth level among all non-OPEC countries, to average 11.00 mb/d, the highest annual level since 1973. The US annual supply forecast represents an upward revision of 120 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. In addition to historical changes, updated production figures in the second and third quarters required the undertaken revision, which was partially carried over to the rest of the year.

North Dakota oil production averaged 875 tb/d in July, an increase of 50 tb/d compared to the previous month and growth of 200 tb/d compared to the same month a year earlier. During the first seven months of 2013, North Dakota crude production averaged 800 tb/d, an increase of 190 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier, or 31%. The growth, however, so far in 2013 is lower in terms of volume and percentage compared to the annual growth of the same period a year earlier.

Texas crude oil production averaged 2.63 mb/d in July, a monthly and annual increase for the same period. The July monthly crude production figure is the highest in at least 32 years. The output increase in Texas was supported mainly by the strong growth achieved till July, as per actual data, from the Eagle Ford area, while the Permian area oil supply seemed to be on a steady or declining trend.

Alaska oil production averaged 490 tb/d in July. During the first seven months, Alaska crude production averaged 520 tb/d, the lowest level for the period since 1977. The output drop is seen at limited new developments and a decline in mature producing areas. The flood in Colorado forced the shutdown of many wells, yet with a minor impact on total US production.

Gulf of Mexico oil production increased in July compared to previous months as maintenance-impacted facilities resumed production and output is assumed to have increased in the rest of the third quarter. However, weather conditions might cause some interruptions in Gulf of Mexico output over the final days of the hurricane season as recent weather conditions have required some shutdowns. Biodiesel production supported the undertaken upward revision on higher output. During the first seven months of 2013, US oil supply increased by 1.05 mb/d compared with the same period of 2012.

On a quarterly basis, US oil production is estimated to average 10.62 mb/d, 10.97 mb/d, 11.20 mb/d and 11.20 mb/d, respectively.

Canada and Mexico
Oil production from Canada is forecast to increase by 0.23 mb/d in 2013 to average 4.00 mb/d, a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous assessment. The second quarter was revised down on the back of updated production data compared to the previous MOMR. Preliminary data in the early part of the third quarter indicated a healthy supply increase from the previous quarter for crude, oil sand and NGL output. Facility maintenance impacted the output in the second quarter, and the return of production is supporting the assumed increase in the third quarter. Furthermore, the announced extension of supply from oil sand facilities is seen to support Canada’s output in the forecast period and the future.

On a quarterly basis, Canada’s supply is seen to average 4.08 mb/d, 3.78 mb/d, 4.02 mb/d and 4.11 mb/d, respectively. During the first half of 2013, Canada’s oil supply increased by 0.20 mb/d compared with the same period in 2012.

Mexico’s oil output is forecast to decline by 40 tb/d in 2013 to average 2.88 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Despite the decline in Mexico’s oil production in July, reaching the lowest level in at least the past two years, August oil production came in healthy. The decline in July came from the drop of output from the Ku-Maloob- Zaap (KMZ) fields, compared with the previous month. According to preliminary data, Mexico’s oil supply averaged 2.89 mb/d during the first three quarters of 2013, down 40 tb/d from the same period of 2012.

On a quarterly basis, Mexico’s supply is seen to stand at 2.91 mb/d, 2.87 mb/d, 2.88 mb/d and 2.86 mb/d, respectively.

OECD Europe
Total OECD Europe oil supply is forecast to drop 0.23 mb/d in 2013 and average 3.54 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 25 tb/d from the previous month. The ongoing output decline in North Sea production is expected to continue in 2013. On a quarterly basis, oil output is estimated to average 3.63 mb/d, 3.57 mb/d, 3.42 mb/d and 3.55 mb/d, respectively.

Norway’s oil supply is projected to decline by 80 tb/d in 2013 and average 1.84 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. The expected average supply in 2013 is at the lowest level since 1990, as the declining output trend that started in 2002 continues. The healthy production level in July from Norway, on steady output from major fields, was offset by the decline in August production due to the drop in output from Statfjord and other offshore fields. The decrease in Norway oil production in August came despite the increases experienced from Ekofisk and Gullfaks on return from maintenance. The North Sea loading programme is showing a decline in October, which could further impact the forecast. Additionally, the delay of the Njord field restart to 2014 from the third quarter further impacted the projection. Moreover, the shutdown of the Ekofisk field in September for repairs could impact the projection in the coming period. During the first three quarters, Norway’s supply is seen to have averaged 1.83 mb/d, a decline of 110 tb/d from the same period a year earlier.

On a quarterly basis, Norway production is expected to average 1.84 mb/d, 1.84 mb/d, 1.82 mb/d and 1.85 mb/d, respectively.

The UK’s oil production is forecast to decline by 0.10 mb/d in 2013 to average 0.86 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 30 tb/d from the previous month. The expected annual production level from the UK in 2013 is the lowest annual average level since 1977. According to actual production data, UK monthly oil output indicated an annual decline in all the months up to July, with an average decline of 0.15 mb/d. The impact of maintenance and natural decline were the main factors behind the drop. Furthermore, the shutdown of the Causeway and Cormorant East facilities further supported the downward revision.

On a quarterly basis, the UK oil supply is seen to average 0.92 mb/d, 0.89 mb/d, 0.77 mb/d and 0.85 mb/d, respectively. According to preliminary data, the UK oil supply averaged 0.86 mb/d during the first three quarters of 2013, a decline of 120 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier.

OECD Asia Pacific
Total OECD Asia Pacific oil supply is forecast to decline by 70 tb/d and average 0.49 mb/d in 2013, representing a steady state from the previous month. The expected annual figure is the lowest level since 1982.

On a quarterly basis, total OECD Asia Pacific supply is seen to average 0.45 mb/d, 0.49 mb/d, 0.53 mb/d and 0.51 mb/d, respectively.

Australia’s oil supply is expected to average 0.42 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 60 tb/d, flat from the previous MOMR. The expected annual average is the lowest level since 1972. Limited new developments and natural decline remain the major characteristics of Australia’s oil supply. According to preliminary data, Australia’s oil supply averaged 0.41 mb/d, a decline of 80 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier. Australia’s monthly oil supply indicated an annual decline in all the months during the first three quarters with an average decline of of 70 tb/d.

On a quarterly basis, Australia’s oil supply is seen to average 0.37 mb/d, 0.41 mb/d, 0.45 mb/d and 0.44 mb/d, respectively.

Developing countries
Total developing countries’ (DCs) oil supply is estimated to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 12.18 mb/d, unchanged from last month. The steady state came as a result of upward and downward revisions that offset each other. All quarters experienced revisions from different regions of the DC group on historical and updated production data as well as changes to individual countries’ supply profiles.

Latin America’s and the Middle East’s supply projections experienced upward revisions, while Other Asia was revised up and Africa remained flat, compared with the previous month. Africa’s and Latin America’s supply is expected to achieve growth, while the Middle East and Other Asia are seen to decline in 2013. South Sudan and Sudan, and Colombia are expected to achieve the highest growth among all DCs, while Syria and Indonesia are expecting the largest declines.

On a quarterly basis, DC oil output is seen to stand at 12.15 mb/d, 12.08 mb/d, 12.15 mb/d and 12.32 mb/d, respectively. According to preliminary data, DCs’ first-half supply averaged 12.11 mb/d, a decline of 40 tb/d from the same period a year earlier.

Oil supply from Other Asia is expected to average 3.58 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 60 tb/d from the previous year. Updated production data indicated lower-than-expected output from Indonesia and Thailand. Accordingly, the necessary adjustments were completed, and the Other Asia oil supply forecast experienced a downward revision of 25 tb/d, compared with the previous assessment. India’s oil production is seen to average 0.87 mb/d in 2013, a minor decline of 10 tb/d compared to the previous year. The operator of the Rajasthan fields is planning to improve the fields’ output with the introduction of enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Malaysia oil supply is expected to average 0.66 mb/d in 2013, steady from the previous MOMR. Malaysia oil supply is seen to increase in the fourth quarter on a ramp-up of projects. EOR projects in Malaysia are expected to support output in the coming period.

On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s oil supply is seen to stand at 3.66 mb/d, 3.58 mb/d, 3.51 mb/d and 3.58 mb/d, respectively.

Indonesia’s oil supply is forecast to decline by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.93 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous month. The downward revision came on the back of updated production figures in the third quarter that showed lower output than previously expected. Similarly, Thailand’s oil supply encountered a downward revision on the back of updated production data. Thailand’s oil supply is expected to average 0.36 mb/d in 2013, steady from the previous year. Oil production from Brunei and Vietnam are expected to remain flat in 2013 compared to the previous year.

Latin America’s oil supply is projected to increase by 0.10 mb/d in 2013 to average 4.77 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR.

Argentina’s oil supply forecast remained steady compared to previous month and is seen to average 0.66 mb/d, a decline of 30 tb/d compared to previous year. Activity level is gaining base in the shale formation. Argentina biodiesel output is experiencing healthy growth and seen to offset the decline of other supply elements. Colombia’s supply is anticipated to increase 70 tb/d in 2013, the largest growth in the region, to average 1.03 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Colombia’s oil supply remained healthy so far in 2013 with continues gains despite the security situation. New EOR project at the Quifa oil field is seen to further support the growth. During the first half of 2013, Latin America’s oil supply averaged 4.72 mb/d, an increase of 30 tb/d from the same period a year earlier.

On a quarterly basis, production is seen to stand at 4.71 mb/d, 4.73 mb/d, 4.78 mb/d and 4.87 mb/d respectively. Brazil’s oil supply is expected to increase by 30 tb/d in 2013 to average 2.63 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. This revision affected all quarters in 2013. A major revision was introduced to Brazil’s biofuel production on the back of healthy production levels. However, maintenance and declines at mature fields in the Campos basin sharply influenced output in July as well as delays in bringing in new production. The expected worker strike in October is seen to have a minimal impact on production so far. For the first seven months of 2013, Brazil’s oil production indicated an annual average decline of 40 tb/d on a monthly basis due to declines in the first fourth months of the year. The startup of the second phase of the BC-10 Parque das Conchas supported the upward revision. According to preliminary and estimated data, Brazil’s oil supply averaged 2.60 mb/d in the first three quarters of 2013, steady from the same period a year earlier.

On a quarterly basis, Brazil’s oil production is seen to average 2.57 mb/d, 2.61 mb/d, 2.63 mb/d and 2.71 mb/d, respectively.

Middle East oil production is estimated to decline by 0.10 mb/d in 2013 to average 1.40 mb/d, an upward revision of 15 tb/d from the last month. Bahrain’s supply experienced a minor upward revision, while Oman, Syria and Yemen forecasts remained steady compared to MOMR. Bahrain’s supply outlook was revised up by 15 tb/d on historical changes to average 0.21 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 20 tb/d compared to the previous year. Oman’s oil supply is forecast to increase by 20 tb/d to average 0.94 mb/d in 2013. More EOR investment is seen to support output in the future. The Rima EOR project is expected to support output soon. Yemen’s oil supply is expected to average 0.16 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 20 tb/d compared to the previous year. New attacks on the main pipeline were experienced in September. Syria’s oil supply is estimated to average 90 tb/d in 2013, a decline of 120 tb/d compared to the previous year. Data availability for Syria’s actual oil production is limited, which is creating difficulties in estimating the supply and checking the data. A high level of risk remains associated with the Middle East supply forecast mainly on political and data issues.

On a quarterly basis, Middle East oil production is seen to stand at 1.48 mb/d, 1.35 mb/d, 1.41 mb/d and 1.36 mb/d, respectively.

African oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.12 mb/d in 2013 to average 2.42 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Despite this steady state, there were a few upward and downward revisions to individual countries’ oil supply forecasts that offset each other. Congo’s supply forecast was revised down slightly on historical production data. South Sudan’s and Sudan’s oil supply is expected to average 0.24 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 0.12 mb/d compared to the previous year, indicating an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The upward revision is introduced on reports of more fields coming back online from South Sudan. The El Tor in the Unity state was reported to have restarted as well as other fields. Moreover, more wells came back online, and output is expected to increase toward pre-shutdown levels. On a quarterly basis, Africa’s supply is estimated to average 2.30 mb/d, 2.42 mb/d, 2.45 mb/d and 2.51 mb/d, respectively.

FSU, Other regions
Total FSU oil production is projected to increase by 0.12 tbm/d in 2013 and average 13.42 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month. The forecast experienced upward and downward revisions on an annual basis for Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and FSU Others, which offset each other. The revisions took place mainly in the third and fourth quarters as updated production data became available. The FSU’s supply growth is supported mainly by Russia and Kazakhstan, while Azerbaijan production is expected to decline in 2013. The FSU supply remains the second largest on a regional basis after OECD Americas. According to preliminary data, FSU supply averaged 13.41 mb/d during the first three quarters of 2013, an increase of 0.13 mb/d compared with the same period a year earlier.

On a quarterly basis, total FSU production is estimated to average 13.45 mb/d, 13.39 mb/d, 13.41 mb/d and 13.45 mb/d, respectively.

China’s oil output is expected to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 and average 4.21 mb/d. Other Europe’s supply is seen to remain flat from 2012 and average 0.14 mb/d in 2013.

Russia
Russia’s oil supply is expected to increase by 0.10 mb/d in 2013 to average 10.47 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous month. The minor upward revision was introduced to adjust for updated production data.

East Siberian fields are supporting the Russian output strongly as well as stabilising West Siberian fields. The government is moving forward in tax breaks for large offshore projects, which will support future output. A government agency is forecasting that Russia’s oil supply will remain relatively steady in the short term as well as in the future. Russia’s production, according to preliminary data, reached a record high in September with a minor increase over the previous month. The healthy figure was supported by steady production from West Siberian fields such as Komi and Perm as well as new volumes from green fields. Production is expected to remain at the current level in the fourth quarter. During the first three quarters of 2013, Russian supply averaged 10.47 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.13 mb/d from the same period in 2012. Third-quarter supply increased by 0.13 mb/d compared with the same period of 2012.

On a quarterly basis, Russian supply is estimated to average 10.45 mb/d, 10.47 mb/d, 10.49 mb/d and 10.46 mb/d, respectively. Russian oil production averaged 10.53 mb/d in September, up 10 tb/d from a month earlier.

Caspian
The Kazakh oil supply is forecast to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 1.64 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The upward revision was introduced to adjust for updated preliminary production data in the third quarter.

The startup of the Kashagan field is supporting Kazakhstan’s oil supply by offsetting declines from other areas and adding to expected growth. The field’s initial production was estimated at 40 tb/d, moving to 90 tb/d and then to 180 tb/d before reaching the first phase target of 370 tb/d. However, the recent gas leak that led to a production halt casted some uncertainty on the field’s ramp-up volume and time frame. Kashagan’s first cargo is expected to load by the end of October. The increase from the Tengiz oil field after maintenance supported the upward revision.

On a quarterly basis, Kazakhstan’s oil supply is seen to stand at 1.68 mb/d, 1.60 mb/d, 1.63 mb/d and 1.66 mb/d, respectively.

Azeri oil supply is forecast to drop 40 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.86 mb/d, which is a downward revision of 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision was introduced to the second half supply estimates.

Updated production data for the early parts of the third quarter showed that output remained below expectations, which necessitated the downward revision in the third quarter. The weak production data is due to maintenance and natural decline. The loading programme is indicating some improvement in October from the previous month, which is seen to support fourth quarter output.

On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s output is seen to stand at 0.87 mb/d, 0.87 mb/d, 0.85 mb/d and 0.85 mb/d, respectively.

China
China’s oil supply is anticipated to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 4.21 mb/d, a downward revision of 30 tb/d from the previous month. This revision was to adjust for updated production data in the third quarter that was partially carried over to the rest of the year.

Preliminary production data indicated that China’s output increased in August from the previous month, supported by an increase in offshore production. The flood impacted third quarter output from the Daqing field and caused a delay for the restart of many wells to the fourth quarter. According to preliminary and estimated data, China’s supply averaged 4.21 mb/d during the first three quarters, an increase of 90 tb/d from the same period a year earlier.

On a quarterly basis, China’s oil production is expected to average 4.24 mb/d, 4.27 mb/d, 4.14 mb/d and 4.21 mb/d, respectively.

OPEC natural gas liquids and non-conventional oils
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are forecast to increase by 0.24 mb/d in 2013 to average 5.80 mb/d, and in 2014, they are expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d to average 5.95 mb/d.

OPEC crude oil production
Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.05 mb/d in September, according to secondary sources, down by 390 tb/d from the previous month. OPEC crude oil production, not including Iraq, averaged 27.24 mb/d in September, a decline of 19 tb/d from the previous month. Crude output of Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola experienced some increase in September, compared to the previous month, while crude production from Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela declined.

World Oil Supply
Preliminary figures show that global oil supply averaged 89.93 mb/d in September, a drop of 0.33 mb/d from the previous month, mainly due to the decline of OPEC crude oil production, while non-OPEC supply experienced some increase compared with the previous month. OPEC crude is estimated to have a 33.4% share in global supply. The estimate is based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, estimates for OPEC NGLs and OPEC crude production according to secondary sources.

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