Middle East oil supply is estimated to decrease by 0.11 mb/d in 2013 from the previous year to average 1.39 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Oman’s supply is estimated to increase by 20 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.94 mb/d. Growth is supported by the ramp-up of several projects under development. Oman’s output is also expected to increase by 30 tb/d to average 0.97 mb/d in 2014. Syria’s output is expected to drop by 0.12 mb/d in 2013 to average 90 tb/d. This downward movement is due to the country’s current political situation, which is associated with a high level of risk. Thus, Syrian oil production is expected to drop by 50 tb/d in 2014. Yemen’s production is expected to average 0.14 mb/d in 2013, a decrease of 40 tb/d from a year earlier, but its output is expected to increase by 20 tb/d in 2014; however, continued attacks on infrastructure place the supply forecast at a high risk.
The Middle East supply forecast is associated with a very high level of risk — mainly due to political factors — which could dramatically change the outlook in either direction. Middle East oil output is forecast to remain unchanged in 2014 compared with the previous year, and no changes are seen from the last MOMR. On a quarterly basis, Middle East supply in 2014 is seen to average 1.38 mb/d, 1.39 mb/d, 1.39 mb/d and 1.40 mb/d, respectively.