Middle East Oil Supply in February 2014

Source: OPEC 2/26/2014, Location: Middle East

Middle Eastís oil supply is estimated to decrease by 0.11 mb/d in 2013 from one year earlier to average 1.39 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. On quarterly basis, this region could produce an average of 1.48 mb/d, 1.35 mb/d, 1.36 mb/d and 1.35 mb/d, respectively.

Omanís supply is estimated to increase by 20 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.94 mb/d, remaining unchanged compared with the previous estimation. Omanís output is also expected to increase by 30 tb/d to average 0.97 mb/d in 2014.

Syriaís production is expected to drop by 0.12 mb/d in 2013 to average 90 tb/d. This downward movement is due to the countryís current political situation, which is associated with a high level of risk. For the same reason, Syrian oil production is expected to drop by another 50 tb/d in 2014.

Yemenís production is expected to average 0.14 mb/d in 2013, a decrease of 40 tb/d from one year earlier, but its output is expected to increase by 20 tb/d to average 0.16 mb/d in 2014. Yemen is ramping up oil production to full capacity, following repairs on its main export pipelines, both of which were hit by separate bombing attacks late last month. The Marib pipeline and the Masila pipeline started working again in the first week of February. The two pipelines handle Yemen's total production of around 0.18 mb/d, occasionally reaching as high as 0.2 mb/d. All of the 100 tb/d produced from Masila is exported, but around half of the 100 tb/d sent through the Marib pipeline is consumed domestically, with the remainder being exported. However, continued attacks on infrastructure place the supply forecast at a high risk.

The Middle East supply forecast is generally associated with a very high level of risk ó mainly due to political factors ó which could dramatically change the outlook in either direction. Middle East oil output is forecast to remain unchanged in 2014 compared with the previous year, and no changes have been seen since the previous MOMR. On a quarterly basis, Middle Eastís supply in 2014 is seen to average 1.38 mb/d, 1.38 mb/d, 1.39 mb/d and 1.39 mb/d, respectively.

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