OECD Asia Pacificís oil supply is estimated to decline by 90 tb/d in 2013 to average
0.48 mb/d, with numbers unchanged from the previous monthís estimation. It is
forecast that the total output of the region will increase by 10 tb/d to average 0.49 mb/d
On a quarterly basis, the total OECD Asia Pacific oil supply in 2014 is estimated to
average 0.47 mb/d, 0.50 mb/d, 0.51 mb/d and 0.49 mb/d, respectively.
Australiaís oil supply is estimated to decrease by 80 tb/d to average 0.40 mb/d in
2013. It is anticipated the Australian oil output in 2014 will increase by 20 tb/d to
average 0.42 mb/d, with a downward revision by 10 tb/d compared with the last
MOMR. Australiaís oil production outlook for 2014 remains steady on expected healthy
oil supplies from new startup projects. New Zealandís production is also forecast to
decline over one year ago to average 47 tb/d in 2014.
Total Developing Countriesí (DCsí) oil output saw a downward revision by 30 tb/d
from the last MOMR to reach 12.11 mb/d. The revisions came from new production
data received on Syrian output in 2012. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in DCs in
2013 is estimated to average 12.09 mb/d, 12.07 mb/d, 12.07 mb/d and 12.21 mb/d,
Total DC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.24 mb/d to average 12.37 mb/d in 2014,
unchanged from the previous month. This growth is mainly supported by Latin America
and Africa, with a minor increase in Middle East, while Other Asiaís supply is expected
to drop this year. Growth in 2014 is foreseen after a significant decline in 2013, which
occurred mainly due to political, technical and weather factors.
On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in DCs in 2014 is projected to average 12.27 mb/d,
12.31 mb/d, 12.38 mb/d and 12.50 mb/d, respectively.
Other Asiaís oil production is estimated to decrease by 80 tb/d in 2013 to average
3.56 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This
has partially carried over to 2014. The revision came from higher-than-expected
numbers in 4Q13, up by 19 tb/d. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in Other Asia in
2013 is estimated to average 3.66 mb/d, 3.59 mb/d, 3.47 mb/d and 3.52 mb/d,
respectively. It is predicted that total oil supply from this region will drop by 30 tb/d to
average 3.53 mb/d in 2014.
On a quarterly basis, 2014 supply is forecast at 3.54 mb/d, 3.52 mb/d, 3.53 mb/d and
3.51 mb/d, respectively.
Indiaís oil supply was sustained at 0.87 mb/d in all quarters of 2013 with a decline of
10 tb/d compared to 2012. This is expected to decrease by another 10 tb/d in 2014 to
average 0.86 mb/d, unchanged from the previous monthís assessment. Thailandís
production in 2013 is expected to grow by 10 tb/d to reach 0.37 mb/d, but output in
2014 is expected to drop by 10 tb/d to average 0.35 mb/d. While Indonesiaís oil
production in the previous year averaged 0.94 mb/d, it showed a decline of 50 tb/d over
2012 and is expected to decrease by 10 tb/d in 2014 to average 0.93 mb/d, with a
downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR.
Malaysiaís liquids supply saw a downward revision of 10 tb/d over the previous
monthís assessment; it is estimated to average 0.65 mb/d in 2013, declining by 10 tb/d
compared with 2012. Its expected production will reach 2012ís level of 0.66 mb/d in the
current year. In the second quarter of this year, the deep water Gumusut field offshore
Sabah in Malaysia is scheduled to see first oil, marking the start of the larger Gumusutkakap
development across Blocks K and J; it is currently going through the final stages
of commissioning. The project, which will peak at 135 tb/d, is Malaysiaís second deep
water development after Kikeh located in Block K. Once Gumusut comes online,
production from the combined GumusutĖKakap development will arrive via a new
150 tb/d floating production system that was moored at the site in June last year.
Vietnamís production was unchanged to average 0.39 mb/d compared with the
previous year and will remain at the same level this year. Bruneiís oil supply in 2013
declined by 20 tb/d to average 0.14 mb/d. It is forecast to see a decline in 2014, to
average 0.12 mb/d.
Other Asiaís oil supply is forecast to decline by 10 tb/d to average 0.21 mb/d in 2014
from 0.22 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from a year earlier.