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Middle East Oil Supply in October 2014

Source: OPEC 10/22/2014, Location: Middle East

Middle Eastern oil production is estimated to decline by 20 tb/d in 2014 to average 1.34 mb/d, a downward revision of 30 tb/d from the previous month. Bahrain and Syria saw production at 0.22 mb/d and 0.03 mb/d in 2014, while Oman’s growth for 2014 has increased to 20 tb/d, although absolute volumes were unchanged at 0.95 mb/d. Syria was producing 330 tb/d just six months before its civil war began, and no changes are expected for Syria in 4Q14. Yemen is estimated to show a decline by 30 tb/d for 4Q14. The country’s forecasts indicate a decline by 10 tb/d to average 0.13 mb/d, revised upward by 10 tb/d compared with the previous MOMR. A high level of risk remains associated with Middle East supply forecasts, mainly due to political and data issues, thus there is downside risk to the forecast. On a quarterly basis, Middle East oil production is seen to stand at 1.34 mb/d, 1.33 mb/d, 1.37 mb/d and 1.33 mb/d, respectively.

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