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Canada and Mexico Oil Supply in November 2014

Source: OPEC 11/19/2014, Location: North America

Canada’s overall supply is projected to increase by 0.18 mb/d in 2014 to average 4.19 mb/d, lower expected growth than in 2013. Preliminary data indicate that output dropped more in September, mainly because of lower synthetic crude production, although output of crude oil and condensate, including bitumen, increased to average 2.5 mb/d. Actual Canadian oil supply in June indicates that the total volume of liquids in the 1Q and the 2Q grew by 0.19 mb/d and 0.34 mb/d, respectively. A lower September production volume of 4.08 mb/d was due to maintenance that affected the following projects during the last month of the 3Q14: Maintenance at the Surmont project for five weeks, taking out about 30 tb/d; ? Maintenance at the Horizon oil sands project in Alberta for 4 weeks; ? Maintenance at the Foster Creek project for two weeks, causing a drop of 55 tb/d.

It is expected that Canadian oil production will be boosted through more extraction by the in-situ method and steam-assisted gravity drainage development projects. The healthy growth is supported by startups and ramp-ups of oil sand developments, such as Foster Creek Phase F and the Cold Lake oil sands area in Alberta, as well as tight crude developments. During the first three quarters of the year, Canada’s oil supply increased by 0.21 mb/d compared with the same period a year earlier, according to preliminary data. On a quarterly basis, Canada’s oil supply is seen averaging 4.27 mb/d, 4.12 mb/d, 4.13 mb/d and 4.24 mb/d, respectively.

Mexico’s production is seen experiencing a decline of 0.07 mb/d in 2014 to average 2.83 mb/d. Actual output in August increased by 30 tb/d to average 2.79 mb/d, which included 0.36 mb/d of NGLs. Ku-Maloob-Zaap, Mexico’s largest producing field, maintained output of around 0.85 mb/d in August 2014. Production from the Cantarell field declined by 62 tb/d from a year earlier to average 0.32 mb/d in August. Mexico’s government has offered additional details of the country’s upstream projects, including 169 fields, of which 60 are already producing. These projects include shale plays, shallow and deep-water projects, and will be offered in bids beginning in November 2014. On a quarterly basis, Mexico’s oil supply is seen averaging 2.87 mb/d, 2.85 mb/d, 2.77 mb/d and 2.82 mb/d, respectively.

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