US Stock Movements in November 2014

Preliminary data for October shows that total commercial oil stocks fell by 5.5 mb, reversing the build of last eight months to stand at 1,132.2 mb. Despite this drop, they were 27.4 mb, or 2.5%, above the latest five-year average and 15.7 mb, or 1.4%, higher than the same period a year ago. Within components, crude commercial stocks saw a build of 18.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 24.0 mb.

US commercial crude stocks rose in October to stand at 380.2 mb. Despite this stock build, crude oil commercial stocks finished the month of October at 3.7 mb, or 1.0%, below the same time last year, but remained 21.0 mb, or 5.8%, above the latest fiveyear average. The build in crude commercial stocks was mainly driven by lower US crude oil refinery input, averaging around 15.4 mb/d, which was nearly 400,000 tb/d less than a month earlier. Refineries operated at around 86.2% of operable capacity in October, 4.3 pp lower than the previous month. A further build in US commercial crude stocks was limited by lower crude imports. Indeed, US crude imports fell by around 170,000 b/d to stand at 7.3 mb/d. Crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, also rose by 1.9 mb in October to 20.8 mb but this was nearly 16.0 mb less than the same time a year ago. Cushing stocks have fluctuated within a tight band since mid-August between 18.9 mb and 21.4 mb after experiencing a considerable stock draw since the beginning of 2014. In October, total product stocks reversed the building trend of the last six months, indicating a drop of 24.0 mb, to stand at 752.0 mb. Despite this stock draw, US product stocks were 19.4 mb, or 2.6%, above the levels seen at the same time a year ago and showed a surplus of 6.4 mb, or 0.9%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, with the exception of residual fuel oil, all other products saw a stock draw.

Gasoline stocks fell by 7.9 mb in October to stand at 201.8 mb, which was 12.1 mb, or 5.7%, lower than the same period a year ago and 7.6 mb, or 3.6%, less than the latest five-year average. The decline came mainly from higher apparent demand which rose by around 220,000 b/d reaching 9.0 mb/d. Higher gasoline output, which rose by about 280,000 b/d to stand at 9.3 mb/d, limited a further stock draw in gasoline.

Distillate stocks also fell by 6.5 mb in October to stand at 119.7 mb, which was still 2.3 mb, or 2.0%, above the same period a year ago but indicated a deficit of 22.8 mb, or 16.0%, less than the five-year average. The fall in middle distillate stocks reflected lower output, which declined by 100,000 b/d to 4.6 mb/d. Lower apparent demand limited a further build in distillate stocks.

Jet fuel stocks also fell by 3.6 mb ending October at 37.1 mb, which is 2.0 mb, or 5.1%, less than the same month a year ago and 6.5 mb, or 14.9%, below the latest five-year average. In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks rose by 0.6 mb to end October at 36.4 mb, which is slightly higher than last year in the same period, while they remained 0.9 mb, or 2.5%, less than the seasonal norm. This build is mainly attributed to lower apparent demand.