Despite financial sanctions and the impact of the falling global oil price, Russia’s preliminary data on oil supply indicates a record high of 10.67 mb/d led by PSA operators, mainly by small companies, increasing by 40 tb/d in December. Rosneft’s output declined m-o-m by 10 tb/d, while the other Russian majors’ output remains stagnant in December.
Russia’s liquids production is estimated to increase by 0.07 mb/d in 2014 to average 10.58 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR.
In 2014, output from new fields was struggling to compensate for declining production at mature fields, particularly in the Western Siberian region. Keeping oil output high has been a priority for the government, although Russian companies have been faced with IOC cooperation stoppages. The Vankor project, which was mainly responsible for the growth achieved in previous years, did not reach its peak of 0.5 mb/d in 2014, but is expected to reach an average of 0.46 mb/d in 2016. Eastern Siberian fields have been a key source of incremental growth in output. 2015 output could decline y-o-y by over 0.1 mb/d, given the impact of sanctions, low prices and no large projects expected to come online, making declines from Western Siberian assets more apparent. Russian crude exports fell to a record low of 3.35 mb/d, lower m-o-m and y-o-y by 0.6 mb/d, due to the export duty being cut from 59% in 2014 to 42% in 2015. Bad weather at Russian ports exacerbated this decline. On a quarterly basis, Russia’s 2014 supply is estimated to average 10.59 mb/d, 10.55 mb/d, 10.52 mb/d and 10.65, mb/d, respectively.