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Latin America Oil Supply in February 2015

Source: OPEC 3/12/2015, Location: South America

Latin America’s oil supply grew by 0.25 mb/d, y-o-y to average 5.03 mb/d in 2014. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in Latin America is expected to average 4.87 mb/d, 4.93 mb/d, 5.11 mb/d and 5.22 mb/d, respectively.

Brazil’s supply is estimated to average 2.91 mb/d in 2014, indicating an increase of 0.27 mb/d over the previous year, with an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR, mainly due to an upward adjustment for production data from 4Q14. Brazil’s oil supply in 2014 is expected to stand at 2.62 mb/d, 2.64 mb/d, 2.73 mb/d and 2.78 mb/d on a quarterly basis.

According to Petrobras, production systems that came into operation in 2014 and contributed to the record were: P-58, in Parque das Baleias and P-62, in the Roncador field, both in the Campos Basin, and Floating production, storage and offloading units (FPSOs) Cidade de Mangaratiba, in the Iracema South area, as well as Cidade de Ilhabela, in the Sapinho North area, both in the Santos Basin’s pre-salt region.

Oil production in fields operated by Petrobras in both the Santos and Campos basin’s pre-salt layers, which are located in deep and ultra-deep waters, reached the historical 0.7 mb/d mark on 16 December. Output of 0.7 mb/d was reached a mere eight years after the first oil discovery at the pre-salt layer in 2006, and only six months after it reached the 0.5 mb/d mark in June. Only 34 production wells contributed to attainment of the 0.7 mb/d mark, proof of the high productivity of the fields. Sixteen of these wells are located in the Santos Basin, which accounts for 61% of the volume produced in the pre-salt area – approximately 0.43 mb/d. The remaining 18 wells are located in the Campos Basin and account for the remaining 39% of production or 0.27 mb/d. Pre-salt oil is currently produced by 12 different platforms, eight of which are producing exclusively from that geological layer.

Total oil supply in December 2014 came to a record 3.13 mb/d, causing an upward revision to 4Q14 figures by 40 tb/d, to reach 3.08 mb/d, the highest quarterly level and higher than 3Q14 by 100 tb/d. Total liquids supply in Brazil, as an emerging non-OPEC oil producer, already passed the 3 mb/d level at the end of 2014.

Colombia’s oil output was estimated to grow by 10 tb/d to average 1.03 mb/d in December. Despite this increase, there was no revision to 4Q14 figures, they remain unchanged at 1.02 mb/d. The 2014 output is estimated to have averaged 1.01 mb/d, a 20 tb/d dip compared with a year earlier. Although Colombia has the potential to increase its output, the country’s oil production was in danger during 2014, mainly due to the recurrence of political unrest and pipeline attacks. Moreover, this situation could be worsening due to hopeless exploration results and operational problems at mature fields, as well as the most important factor, declining oil prices. It is quite evident that the upstream oil industry in Colombia – where Ecopetrol, its largest producer, has cut its 2015 budget – has no room for oil production growth in the current year.

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