Mexico Oil Supply in March 2015

Source: OPEC 4/2/2015, Location: South America

Liquids production in Mexico declined by 100 tb/d m-o-m to average 2.61 mb/d in January, the lowest level since October 1995. Crude output was lower y-o-y by 0.26 mb/d, with heavy crude output registering a y-o-y decline of 0.22 mb/d. Mexico’s oil supply is forecast to average 2.70 mb/d in 2015, showing a decline of 100 tb/d, revised down by 30 tb/d from the previous month’s estimation. All leading fields are in decline, and Pemex has not made any discoveries of note to take their place. Data for the first two months of this year pointed to a drop in crude production.

This was led by unusually low output from the KMZ field at 0.79 mb/d, lower y-o-y by 75 tb/d, likely due to maintenance. Indeed, preliminary data for February shows that KMZ output recovered to 0.87 mb/d, higher y-o-y by 3 tb/d, thus more in line with 2H14 averages. In January, Mexican crude oil production was at 2.25 mb/d, with a 10.2% annual decline. In February, the y-o-y decline was at about 7% as output rose to 2.33 mb/d. Meanwhile, output from the Cantarell field fell below 0.26 mb/d in January, with y-o-y declines above 0.1 mb/d. Preliminary output for February stood at 2.34 mb/d, lower y-o-y by 0.17 mb/d, with the majority of fields declining, except Chuc. It is expected that crude output will average 2.32 mb/d this year. Lower oil prices have forced Pemex to slash its 2015 capex by $4.2 billion, although this isn’t expected to impact crude output just yet; deepwater projects that have not already been sanctioned are likely to be delayed. On a quarterly basis, Mexico’s supply is seen to average 2.69 mb/d, 2.69 mb/d, 2.71 mb/d and 2.70 mb/d, respectively.

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