US Forecast for 2015 Oil Supply – June 2015

Source: OPEC 7/8/2015, Location: North America

US total oil supply is anticipated to grow by 0.70 mb/d to average 13.56 mb/d in 2015, unchanged from the previous MOMR. US crude oil production reached an average of 9.53 mb/d in March, however US total supply was unchanged at 13.56 mb/d in 1Q15.

Moreover, crude oil output was more or less steady in April and May, according to the EIA’s weekly report, which is only preliminary data. Therefore, preliminary oil output of 13.56 mb/d in 1Q15 indicates growth of 70 tb/d over 4Q14. US liquids output, supported by NGLs output, was higher by 0.08 mb/d over February. US NGLs growth y-o-y remained elevated at 0.39 mb/d, mostly coming from unconventional sources of shale gas.

Capital expenditure cuts in 2015, as well as cash flows, have encouraged companies to defer investment away from costly exploration and research drilling to focus on core areas of major tight oil plays, such as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and Permian basins. Companies with lower drilling costs that operate on acreage in the sweet spots of these regions are expected to continue to drill highly productive wells in 2015.

By the end of 2014, US tight oil output (crude oil, condensate and NGLs produced from unconventional sources such as tight and shale formations) reached 5.6 mb/d, representing a share of around 10% of non-OPEC supply, compared with only 1.7% in 2009. Of total growth of 1.63 mb/d in US oil output, 1.5 mb/d came from tight oil. In March 2015, the average output of North Dakota increased by 10 tb/d to 1.19 mb/d compared with a month earlier, and production from Texas increased by 60 tb/d to average 3.67 mb/d. Oil production from the Gulf of Mexico declined to 1.41 mb/d, but Alaska’s increased by 20 tb/d to 0.51 mb/d.

On a quarterly basis, US oil supply in 2015 is expected to be at 13.56 mb/d, 13.60 mb/d, 13.56 mb/d and 13.54 mb/d, respectively.

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