Middle Eastern oil supply is estimated to decrease by 0.10 mb/d in 2015 from the previous year to average 1.24 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. The Middle Eastern supply forecast is associated with a very high level of risk, mainly due to political factors, which could dramatically change the outlook in either direction. Yemen’s oil production has slumped to approximately 16,000 b/d from a capacity of 150,000 b/d in the first quarter, according to an estimate by the country's petroleum exploration and production authority. Diminishing storage availability, along with the strict coalition embargo on exports, means that remaining output from companies' assets in the southeastern Hadramawt province, which are already at low levels, could stop completely by August.
On a quarterly basis, Middle Eastern supply in 2015 is seen to average 1.31 mb/d, 1.24 mb/d, 1.21 mb/d and 1.20 mb/d, respectively.