Forecast for 2016 Middle East Oil Supply August 2015

Source: OPEC 9/2/2015, Location: Middle East

Middle East oil supply is estimated to decrease by 0.40 mb/d in 2016 from the previous year to average 1.20 mb/d, revised up by 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. There is no expectation for growth or decline in oil supply in Bahrain and Syria, while oil output in Yemen and Oman is expected to decline in 2016. Moreover, the Middle East supply forecast is associated with a very high level of risk, mainly due to political factors, which could dramatically change the outlook in either direction.

On a quarterly basis, Middle East supply in 2016 is seen to average 1.21 mb/d, 1.20 mb/d, 1.19 mb/d and 1.19 mb/d, respectively.

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