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Forecast for 2016 FSU Oil Supply - October 2015

Source: OPEC 11/8/2015, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil supply is expected to decline by 0.16 mb/d in 2016 to average 13.43 mb/d, an upward revision of 60 tb/d from the previous month’s estimation and mainly due to an upward revision to Russian output in 2016. Oil production in Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and FSU others will decrease in 2016.

On a quarterly basis, total FSU oil supply in 2016 is seen to average 13.55 mb/d, 13.39 mb/d, 13.34 mb/d and 13.46 mb/d, respectively.

Russian oil supply is expected to decrease by 0.06 mb/d to average 10.69 mb/d in 2016, with growth revised up by 50 tb/d from the previous MOMR. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply from Russia in 2016 is seen to average 10.73 mb/d, 10.65 mb/d, 10.64 mb/d and 10.73 mb/d, respectively.

Oil production in Kazakhstan will decline by 30 tb/d to average 1.57 mb/d in 2016, an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous month’s forecast. Different sources have said that the giant Kashagan project was unlikely to start production before mid- 2017.

Azerbaijan’s oil production is predicted to decline by 40 tb/d to average 0.82 mb/d in 2016 without any changes in the forecast over the previous MOMR. Lower prices are likely to accelerate declines in Azeri production in 2016 compared to 2015.

Other Europe’s oil supply is estimated to remain flat from 2012 to average 0.14 mb/d and continue at this level in 2016.

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