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Canada and Mexico Oil Supply - November 2015

Source: OPEC 11/29/2015, Location: North America

Oil supply in Canada is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d in 2016 to average 4.48 mb/d y-o-y, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Oil sands projects in Canada, which are already invested and sanctioned, will not be stopped or kept on hold in 2015 or 2016. New productions with large amounts of sunken capital are insulated to price drops due to the long-term outlook. For this reason, projects totaling 459 tb/d of bitumen are expected to come onstream in 2015 and 2016. Looking forward to 2020, approximately 89% of production is already invested or sanctioned, but according to new data from different sources given by Rystad Energy, 11 projects with a total capex of around $50 billion, which were planned to materialize in 2017 onward, were deferred to the 2018-2026 period.

On a quarterly basis, total Canadian oil supply in 2016 is estimated to average 4.45 mb/d, 4.44 mb/d, 4.47 mb/d and 4.57 mb/d, respectively.

Mexican oil production in 2016 is expected to decline at a slower pace of 90 tb/d to average 2.50 mb/d, an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. On a quarterly basis, total Mexican oil supply in 2016 is estimated to average 2.55 mb/d, 2.50 mb/d, 2.50 mb/d and 2.47 mb/d, respectively.

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