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Balance of Supply and Demand - April 2016

Source: OPEC_RP160412 4/13/2016, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.7 mb/d, which is 0.1 mb/d less than the 2014 level. In 2016, the demand for OPEC crude is projected at 31.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the last report and 1.8 mb/d higher than last year.

Estimate for 2015
Demand for OPEC crude for 2015 remained unchanged from the previous month to stand at 29.7 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the 2014 level. Within the quarters, both 1Q15 and 2Q15 were revised down by 0.1 mb/d, while the other quarters remained unchanged. The 1Q15 fell by 0.8 mb/d, while 2Q15 remained flat. 3Q15 and 4Q15 rose by 0.1 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d, respectively, versus the same quarter last year.

Forecast for 2016
Demand for OPEC crude for 2016 remained broadly unchanged from the previous report and is projected to increase by 1.8 mb/d, to average 31.5 mb/d. Within the quarters, 1Q16 and 2Q16 were revised down by 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. This adjustment reflects the combined upward revision in non-OPEC supply and downward revision in demand. 3Q16 was revised up by 0.1 mb/d, while 4Q16 remained unchanged. 1Q16 and 2Q16 are expected to increase by 1.0 mb/d and 1.8 mb/d, respectively, while 3Q16 and 4Q16 are projected to rise by 2.2 mb/d and 2.0 mb/d, respectively.



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