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Stock Movements - April 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170411 4/12/2017, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks fell in February to stand at 2,987 mb, which is around 268 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated a surplus of 227 mb and 41 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 64.2 days, 4.6 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 9.4 mb for the second consecutive month to stand at 1,337.4 mb. At this level, they are 11.1 mb above the same period a year ago and 201.3 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude oil rose by 7.1 mb, while products fell by 16.5 mb. The latest information for China shows that total commercial oil inventories rose by 18.2 mb in February to stand at 396.2 mb, which is 12.2 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude fell by 3.2 mb, while product stocks rose by 21.4 mb.

OECD
Preliminary data for February shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 28.3 mb, reversing the build of the previous month to stand at 2,987 mb, which is around 34.0 mb lower than the same time one year ago, but 268 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by 16.3 mb, while products fell by 44.6 mb. All regions witnessed a stock draw.

OECD commercial crude stocks rose by 16.3 mb in February, following a massive build of 45.2 mb in January. At 1,546 mb, they stood 47 mb above the same time a year ago and around 227 mb higher than the latest five-year average. While OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific stocks witnessed a stock draw, OECD America experienced a stock build in commercial crude stocks.

By contrast, OECD product inventories fell by 44.6 mb in February to stand at 1,441 mb, which is 81 mb below the same time a year ago, but 41 mb above the seasonal norm. All regions witnessed a product stock draw.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.3 mb in February to stand at 64.2 days, which is 0.9 days less than the same period in 2016, and 4.6 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 7.7 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 65.4 days in February. OECD Asia Pacific stood 1.9 days above the seasonal average to finish the month at 51.6 days, while OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 0.5 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 69.5 days in February.

OECD Americas
Total commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 10.8 mb in February to stand at 1,611 mb, 31.5 mb above a year ago and 230 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude rose by 23.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 34.7 mb.

At the end of February, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas rose, ending the month at 881 mb, which is 67 mb above the same time one year ago and 192 mb above the latest five-year average. The build in OECD Americas commercial crude stocks could be attributed to lower US crude throughput, which decreased by more than 800 tb/d to average 15.6 mb/d amid refinery maintenance. Higher US crude domestic production also supported this build; however, lower US crude imports limited a further build in crude oil stocks.

By contrast, commercial product stocks in OECD Americas fell by 34.7 mb in February, the sixth consecutive monthly drop, to stand at 730 mb. At this level, they are 35.4 mb less than the same time one year ago, but 37 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Higher demand, combined with lower refinery output, could be behind the drop in OECD America product stocks.

OECD Europe
OECD Europeís total commercial stocks fell by 12.6 mb in February, ending the month at 965 mb, which is 54 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 27 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products fell by 5.4 mb and 7.2 mb, respectively.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks fell in February, ending the month at 417 mb, which is 9.4 mb lower than a year earlier, but 24.2 mb higher than the latest five-year average. An increase in crude throughput was behind the drop in crude oil stocks. The fall in crude oil stocks could be attributed to lower domestic North Sea output, combined with higher crude throughput during the month of February.

OECD Europeís commercial product stocks also fell by 7.2 mb to end February at 549 mb, which is 45 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 3.0 mb higher than the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks fell by 4.9 mb in February, reversing the January build, to stand at 411 mb, which is 10.9 mb lower than a year ago and 11 mb above the five-year average.

Within the components, crude and products fell by 2.3 mb and 2.6 mb from January, respectively. In February, crude inventories ended the month at 248 mb, which is 10.3 mb below a year ago, albeit 10.9 mb above the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended February at 162 mb, standing 0.6 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 0.2 mb higher than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for February shows that total European stocks fell by 1.6 mb following a build of 10.0 mb in January. At 1,136.9 mb, European stocks are 39.4 mb, or 3.3%, lower than the same time a year ago, but remained 37.0 mb, or 3.4%, higher than the latest five-year average. Crude fell by 5.4 mb, while total product stocks rose by 3.8 mb.

European crude inventories fell in February to stand at 474.7 mb, which is 18.6 mb, or 3.8%, lower than the same period a year ago. However, they are 8.4 mb, or 1.8%, higher than the seasonal average. An increase in crude throughput was behind the drop in crude oil stocks. Preliminary data indicates that European refiners were running at around 10.4 mb/d in the first two months of 2017, about 100 tb/d higher than the same period one year ago.

By contrast, European product stocks rose by 3.8 mb, ending February at 662.2 mb. At this level, they are 20.7 mb, or 3.0% lower than the same time a year ago, but still 28.6 mb, or 4.5%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, gasoline and distillate stocks rose, while residual fuel oil witnessed a draw.

Distillate stocks rose by 5.1 mb in February to stand at 446.6 mb. At this level, distillate inventories are 1.2 mb, or 0.3%, higher than the same time a year ago, and 44.3 mb, or 11.0%, above the latest five-year average. Gasoline stocks also rose, by 0.4 mb in February, to stand at 122.7 mb, which is 7.6 mb, or 5.8%, lower than the same time one year ago, but 2.0 mb, or 1.7%, higher than the seasonal norm. The build in distillate and gasoline stocks was driven mainly by higher output as demand for both products was greater in February, than in January. In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell by 1.8 mb in February to stand at 68.7 mb, which is 13.1 mb, or 16.0%, less than the same month a year ago, and 13.5 mb, or 16.4%, lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for March shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 9.4 mb for the second consecutive month to stand at 1,337.4 mb. At this level, they are 11.1 mb, or 0.8%, above the same period a year ago and 201.3 mb, or 17.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by 7.1 mb, while products fell by 16.5 mb.

US commercial crude stocks rose in March for the third consecutive month to stand at 535.5 mb, 34.0 mb, or 6.8%, above the same time one year ago and 133.2 mb, or 33.1%, above the latest five-year average. The build in US commercial crude stocks could be attributed to higher crude imports combined with higher domestic production. However, higher crude throughput limited further build in crude oil commercial stocks. A greater refinery utilisation rate could provide support to crude stocks in the coming months as total crude imports remained stronger.

In contrast, total product stocks fell by 16.5 mb in March to stand at 801.9 mb, 22.9 mb, or 2.8%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 68.2 mb, or 9.3%, above the seasonal average. With the exception of residual fuel, all products experienced a stock draw.

Gasoline stocks fell by 10.2 mb in March, following a 10.7 mb stock draw in February. At 239.1 mb, gasoline stocks stood 4.2 mb, or 1.7%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 10.9 mb, or 4.8%, above the latest five-year average. The drop came mainly as a result of higher consumption, which increased by around 600 tb/d from the previous month to stand at 9.3 mb/d. Distillate stocks also fell by 9.2 mb in March for the second consecutive month to stand at 152.4 mb, indicating a deficit of 8.2 mb, or 5.1%, over the same period a year ago, and 21.0 mb, or 16.0%, above the latest five-year average. The drop in middle distillate stocks also came as a result of higher consumption, which increased by nearly 200 tb/d to average around 4.2 mb/d.

Jet fuel oil inventories fell by 2.1 mb to 42.1 mb in March, 1.8 mb, or 4.0%, down from the level seen the same time in 2016, but 2.5 mb, or 6.4%, above the seasonal norm. In contrast, residual fuel stocks rose slightly by 0.1 mb, ending March at 39.6 mb, 4.9 mb, or 11.1%, below the same period a year ago and 1.1 mb, or 2.8%, higher than the latest five-year average.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell by 4.9 mb in February, the fourth consecutive month to stand at 140.4 mb, which is, 6.9 mb, or 4.7%, less than the same time a year ago, and 10.5 mb, or 6.9%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude and products fell by 2.3 mb and 2.6 mb, respectively.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in February to stand at 83.1 mb, which is 3.9 mb, or 4.5%, below the same period a year ago, and 4.7 mb, or 5.3%, below the seasonal norm. The fall was driven by higher crude throughputs, which increased by around 30 tb/d, or 0.7%, to average 3.57 mb/d. Higher crude imports limited further crude oil stock draws. Indeed, crude oil imports rose by 78 tb/d, or 2.3%, to stand at 3.54 mb/d.

Japanís total product inventories fell by 2.6 mb in February to stand at 57.3 mb. At this level, total product inventories stood at 3.0 mb, or 4.9%, lower than the same month the previous year, and 5.8 mb, or 9.2%, less than the seasonal norm. This stock draw came on the back of higher domestic product sales, which rose by more than 170 tb/d to average 3.49 mb/d. However, domestic sales remained 3.9% lower than the same month a year earlier. Within products, gasoline rose, while distillates witnessed a stock draw. Residual fuel remained unchanged.

Gasoline stocks rose in February by 0.3 mb to stand at 11.2 mb, which is 0.4 mb, or 3.3%, higher than the same time a year ago, but 1.1 mb, or 8.9 %, below the latest five-year average. The build in gasoline stocks was driven by higher imports, which increased by more than double from the previous month.

Distillate stocks fell by 3.1 mb in February to stand at 24.0 mb. At this level, they stood at 0.1 mb, or 0.3%, higher than the same period a year ago, but 2.0 mb, or 7.8%, below the seasonal average. Within distillate components, jet fuel and kerosene fell by 12.3% and 23.9%, respectively, while gasoil rose by 5.6%. The fall in jet fuel stocks came mainly from higher domestic sales, which rose by 7.5%, while the fall in kerosene was driven by lower output, which decreased by 1.0%. The build in gasoil oil stocks could be attributed to higher output combined with an increase in imports.

Total residual fuel oil stocks remained unchanged in February to stand at 13.1 mb, which is 0.1 mb, or 1.0%, higher than a year ago, and 1.3 mb, or 9.3%, below the latest five-year average. Within fuel oil components, fuel oil A fell by 0.5%, while fuel B.C rose by 0.4%. The fall in fuel oil A was driven by higher domestic sales, which rose by 1.8%, while the build in fuel oil B.C was attributed to higher outputs.

China
The latest information for China showed total commercial oil inventories rose further by 18.2 mb in February, following a build of 15.2 mb in January, to stand at 396.2 mb. This is 12.2 mb lower than the same time one year ago. Within the components, crude fell by 3.2 mb, while product stocks rose by 21.4 mb.

In February, commercial crude stocks fell by 3.2 mb, reversing the build of one month earlier. At 222.7 mb, they were 16.1 mb below the same time the previous year. This build could be mainly attributed to higher crude imports, as both domestic production and crude runs fell in February compared with January, due to the traditional Chinese New Year holiday.

In contrast, total product stocks in China rose by 21.4 mb in February to stand at 173.5 mb. They were 3.9 mb above the same time a year ago. Within products, the bulk of the build came from diesel followed by gasoline, while kerosene saw a slight stock draw.

Diesel inventories in February rose massively by 20.3 mb to stand at 88.6 mb, although this is still 7.2 mb lower than the same time one year earlier. This build could be attributed to lower demand. Gasoline also rose by 1.4 mb to stand at 64.8 mb, while kerosene stocks fell by 0.3 mb in February to end the month at 20.1 mb. At this level, kerosene stocks were 2.9 mb higher than this time a year ago.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Singapore
At the end of February, product stocks in Singapore rose by 3.8 mb to stand at 52.4 mb. At this level, they were 4.9 mb, or 8.5%, below the same period a year ago. Within products, fuel oil saw a large build, while light and middle distillates witnessed a stock draw.

Residual fuel oil stocks rose by 4.8 mb in February, the second monthly rise, to stand at 26.7 mb. At this level, they were 4.9 mb, or 8.5%, lower than the same time a year ago. The build was mainly attributed to lower marine bunker demand in the region.

In contrast, light and middle distillate stocks fell in February by 0.5 mb and 0.6 mb, respectively. At 12.6 mb, light distillates stood at 2.3 mb, or 15.1%, below the same time one year ago, while middle distillates ended February at 12.6 mb, which is 0.1 mb, or 0.4%, higher than the same period a year ago. The build in both products was driven by higher exports to the Singapore hub amid some improvement in demand.

Residual fuel oil stocks also rose by 1.2 mb in February ending the month at 21.8 mb. At this level, they are 0.5 mb, or 2.1%, lower than the same time a year ago. The build could be attributed to lower marine bunker demand in the region.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in ARA rose by 5.6 mb in February to stand at 45.5 mb. At this level, they are 5.5 mb, or 10.7%, lower than at the same time a year ago. Within products, gasoline, gasoil and jet oil saw builds, while naphtha and fuel oil experienced stock draws.

Gasoline inventories rose by 0.7 mb, ending February at 9.6 mb, which is 0.4 mb, or around 4.1%, lower than the same month one year ago. This build could be attributed to lower demand in the region.

Gasoil stocks rose by 5.0 mb in February to stand at 24.4 mb. At this level, it stood at 1.8 mb, or 7.0%, below the same time a year ago.

In contrast, fuel oil stocks fell by 0.1 mb in February to stand at 4.6 mb, which is 2.8 mb, or nearly 38%, lower than the same time a year ago. This drop was mainly driven by lower imports to the ARA hub.

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