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Caspian Oil Supply - May 2017

Source: OPEC 5/23/2017, Location: Asia

Azerbaijan’s oil supply forecast for 2017 remained unchanged with a contraction of 70 tb/d to average 0.78 mb/d, while oil production in 2016 declined by only 10 tb/d. Azeri oil output in April was reported higher by 32 tb/d m-o-m at 725 tb/d, but output of NGLs was flat at 69 tb/d. Therefore, total liquids output in April increased by 30 tb/d to average 0.79 mb/d. This led to an upward revision in oil supply by 10 tb/d in 2017, reaching 0.78 mb/d, indicating a contraction of 60 tb/d.

Kazakhstan’s oil output averaged 1.72 mb/d in 1Q17, some 40 tb/d higher y-o-y. Preliminary production data in April showed a steady output of 1.76 mb/d compared to March, which 260 tb/d higher y-o-y. The Kashagan ramp-up was steeper than expected in March, reaching 190 tb/d at the end of the month, while output was around 130 tb/d in February, five months after its re-start. However, the government hopes to reduce oil production at other fields in the coming months when the weather becomes warmer. Oil supply in 2016 declined by 40 tb/d y-o-y to average 1.56 mb/d.

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