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Caspian Oil Supply - October 2017

Source: OPEC 11/1/2017, Location: Asia

In Azerbaijan, according to data provided by the Ministry of Energy, oil production declined by 0.07 mb/d m-o-m, averaging 0.75 mb/d in August, lower by 0.10 mb/d, y-o-y. Of this, 0.68 mb/d was crude and 0.07 mb/d NGLs. The decline was likely caused by the ACG complex, which accounts for three quarters of Azerbaijan’s output. ACG output averaged 0.59 mb/d during 1H17, compared with 0.66 mb/d a year earlier. Output from Azerbaijan averaged 797 tb/d in the last eight months of 2017, 40 tb/d lower than last October. It is expected that supply for 2017 and 2018 will decline by 0.06 mb/d and 0.05 mb/d y-o-y to average 0.79 mb/d and 0.74 mb/d, respectively.

Kazakhstan’s crude production declined by 78 tb/d m-o-m to average 1.4 mb/d in August. NGLs output remained steady at 0.27 mb/d in August, indicating a total liquids supply of around 1.67 mb/d. This represents a decline by 0.07 mb/d m-o-m. Continuous gains from the Kashagan field, which reached 0.2 mb/d in July according to statements from the operator Eni, and a rebound in volumes from the Karachaganak condensate field offset the production decline at Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, which was reported to see lower output in August, and declines from other fields because of maintenance over the month. Oil production forecasts in 2017 and 2018 indicate growth of 0.18 mb/d for this year, all coming from Kashagan phase one development, and 0.06 mb/d for the next year. However, production next year is likely to be more uncertain, as peak output in Kashagan might come sooner than expected in 2019.

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