Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc.’s (NPCC’s) annual reliability assessment forecasts the NPCC Region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer. The overall NPCC coincident electricity summer peak demand is forecasted to be around 104,600 megawatts (MW), which is slightly higher than last summer. An installed supply capacity of about 160,000 MW is projected to be in place to meet electricity demand.
Forecasts also indicate sufficient transmission capability and adequate capacity margins to meet peak demand and required operating reserves. NPCC’s spare operable capacity (over and above reserve requirements) this summer is estimated to range from 8,000 MW to over 15,000 MW.
“Our assessment estimates that the NPCC Region’s spare operable capacity – that is the amount of electricity supply exceeding demand and required reserves – will be quite sizable. Simply put, that means that the region has extra insurance against unforeseen events and demands on the grid,” said Charles Dickerson, President and CEO of NPCC. “Against the stress tests of our assessment, the region has a reliable bulk supply and transmission capability of electricity throughout the summer months.”
For the six New England states, the state of New York and the province of Ontario, an adequate supply of electricity is forecast for this summer. Moreover, the winter peaking province of Québec and Canadian Maritime Provinces are expected to meet forecasted electricity demand by a wide margin, enabling those areas to transfer surplus electricity supplies to other areas of the region if needed.
The assessment considered a wide range of conditions including forecast demand uncertainty; unexpected generator plant outages; transmission constraints between Regions and within NPCC; implementation of operating procedures; estimated impact of demand response programs; and additional capacity unavailability coupled with reduced transfer capabilities.
“It appears that the gradual lifting of pandemic restrictions will lead to a small increase in the Region’s overall summer electricity peak demand for the first time in several years,” added Phil Fedora, NPCC’s Vice President and Chief Engineer. “However, ambient weather remains the single most important variable impacting demand forecasts during the summer.”
Throughout the summer, NPCC will continue to monitor the operating conditions on the bulk power system. As part of these efforts, NPCC conducts daily and week-ahead calls between NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions. In addition, NPCC supports industry-wide reliability and security coordination efforts to promote communications, awareness, and information sharing.