MENA Region Oil Supply - OCT 11

Middle East oil production is estimated to decline by 50 tb/d in 2011 to average 1.73 mb/d, indicating a downward revision 15 tb/d from the last month. Bahrain and Oman oil supply encountered minor downward revisions, while Syria and Yemen forecasts remained unchanged. Bahrain oil supply outlook experienced a downward revision of less than 10 tb/d on historical changes. Oman oil supply forecast encountered a downward revision due to delays of the startup of the EOR projects for Harweel miscible gas and Qarn Alam steam injection. The downward revision came despite higher oil output in August compared to the previous month. Yemen oil supply remained unchanged despite the explosion at a major pipeline. Syria oil supply remained flat from the previous MOMR, despite reports of reduced output at certain operations. On a quarterly basis, Middle East oil production is seen to stand at 1.78 mb/d, 1.65 mb/d, 1.72 mb/d, and 1.76 mb/d respectively.

Egypt oil production, according to preliminary data, indicated higher-than-previously expected output, hence requiring a minor upward revision of less than 10 tb/d. Oil supply from Egypt is expected to remain relatively flat in 2011, compared to a year ago and average 0.71 mb/d. Africa oil supply is forecast to increase by 40 tb/d in 2011 to average 2.62 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. Despite the minor upward revision to the Egypt oil supply outlook, Ghana oil production forecast experienced a downward revision on the back of the slower-thanexpected ramp-up of the Jubilee project. On a quarterly basis, Africa oil supply is estimated to average 2.62 mb/d, 2.59 mb/d, 2.62 mb/d, and 2.67 mb/d respectively.