Total FSU oil supply is projected to increase by 0.13 mb/d in 2012 to average 13.42 mb/d, indicating a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous month. The expected FSU supply increase in 2012 is twice the growth seen in 2011, despite the relatively low growth level compared to the past five years. Part of the expected growth in 2012 is coming from the assumption that output will return to normal levels from the maintenance and shutdown-inflicted output in 2011. All the major producers in the FSU are expected to show supply growth in 2012. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply from the FSU is seen to average 13.44 mb/d, 13.37 mb/d, 13.40 mb/d and 13.47 mb/d respectively. China oil supply is expected to grow by 40 tb/d in 2012 to average 4.18 mb/d and Other Europe is seen to remain steady in 2012 at 0.14 mb/d.
Russia oil supply is expected to increase by 60 tb/d in 2012 to average 10.33 mb/d, indicating a minor upward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. The upward revision came as the adjustment in the fourth quarter 2011 was carried over to 2012. The forecast increase is supported by new volumes from developments such as the Vankor, Uvat, Prirazlom, and Verkhnechonye. Additionally, the expected increase of capex by some producers is seen to support growth in 2012 and combat natural decline. The evolution of natural decline at mature fields will play an important role in the outcome of Russia oil supply in 2012 as the relatively limited new expected volume is seen to barely offset the anticipated decline in mature fields. The Vankor oil project is expected to add 50-60 tb/d in 2012, lower than the growth seen in previous years. Accordingly, Russia oil supply forecast in 2012 has a high level of risk and uncertainty, mainly on decline, price, taxation, and delay issues. According to preliminary data, Russia oil supply averaged 10.33 mb/d in the fourth quarter 2011, an increase of 0.11 mb/d compared to the same period in 2010. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is believed to average 10.32 mb/d, 10.31 mb/d, 10.34 mb/d and 10.35 mb/d respectively.
