Africa Oil Supply - May 2012

Africa’s oil supply is forecast to decrease by 0.24 mb/d to average 2.34 mb/d in 2012, representing a downward revision of 100 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has come from former Sudan, while the supply outlook for the other producers remains steady from a month earlier. Former Sudan’s oil supply is predicted to decline by 0.28 mb/d in 2012 to average 0.15 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 100 tb/d from the previous MOMR.

The recent escalation of tensions between the newly designated South Sudan and Sudan required the undertaken revision. Following the capture and withdrawal from the Heglig area by South Sudan forces, an agreement between the two nations on transport fees is no longer expected for 2012. Hence, the halt of South Sudan’s production is seen to continue throughout this year, and this has driven the revision. In early May, Sudan reported that production had resumed from the Heglig field and output would soon return to previous levels. On a quarterly basis, Africa’s oil supply is seen to average 2.41 mb/d, 2.30 mb/d, 2.32 mb/d and 2.33 mb/d respectively.