Asia Oil Supply – October 2012

Oil supply from Other Asia is expected to average 3.62 mb/d in 2012, a minor decline of 10 tb/d from the previous year. Updated production data indicated lower-than-expected output from Brunei, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and ‘Asia Others’. Accordingly, the necessary adjustments were completed and the Other Asia oil supply forecast experienced a downward revision of 30 tb/d, compared with the previous assessment. India’s oil production in August reached the lowest level since January, indicating a decline from the previous month that supported the downward revision.

Oil production from India is expected to remain steady in 2012 and average 0.89 mb/d, being revised down by 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Thailand’s oil supply is estimated to increase by 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.35 mb/d, an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous month. This revision came on the back of updated production data that was partially carried over to the rest of the year. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s oil supply is seen to stand at 3.65 mb/d, 3.56 mb/d, 3.62 mb/d and 3.65 mb/d respectively.

Indonesia’s oil supply is forecast to decline by 50 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.98 mb/d, flat from the previous month. A downward revision in the third quarter did not affect the annual figure. This revision came on the back of adjusted production data. Additionally, the government indicated that the output target might not be achieved in 2012. On the other hand, one of the major operators announced a new wells reactivation recovery programme that will increase output by a few thousand barrels. ‘Asia Others’ oil supply forecast was revised down from the previous month on updated production data. Vietnam’s oil supply is expected to increase by 30 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.38 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month. Vietnam’s expected growth is the highest among the region’s countries.