Non-OPEC
Estimate for 2012
Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have averaged 52.96 mb/d in 2012, an increase of
0.50 mb/d over the previous year. This constitutes an overall downward revision from
the previous Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of 60 tb/d, partly from historical
revisions, as well as from revisions to the supply estimates for the second half of 2012.
In 2012, non-OPEC supply growth was supported mainly by OECD Americas, China
and the former Soviet Union (FSU), while all the other regions’ supply either remained
steady or declined. OECD Americas’ supply experienced the largest growth among all
non-OPEC regions, of 1.17 mb/d, and this was followed by China with an increase of
90 tb/d over the previous year. FSU supply grew by 60 tb/d. The biggest decline came
from OECD Europe, with a drop of 300 tb/d. Africa’s supply had the second-largest
drop, followed by the Middle East and OECD Asia-Pacific, while Other Asia’s supply
remained steady. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply in 2012 is estimated at
53.19 mb/d, 52.61 mb/d, 52.33 mb/d and 53.70 mb/d respectively.
Revisions to the 2012 estimate
There have been a few revisions to the non-OPEC oil supply estimates for 2012, mostly
downward compared with the previous month, with the majority affecting the second
half of the year. Supply estimates for the US, Canada, Australia, Indonesia and China
have changed. The revisions were introduced to adjust for updated production data. US
supply figures for the first and third quarters were revised down by 15 tb/d and 20 tb/d
from the previous MOMR, resulting in a downward revision of 10 tb/d on an annual
basis. Australia’s supply estimate for 2012 was revised down the most in the second
half, with new production data indicating lower output than previously advised. It was
revised down by an average of 150 tb/d, which led to the annual figure being adjusted
lower by 75 tb/d. Canada’s and Indonesia’s supply estimates in 2012 were revised up
to adjust for updated production data that was slightly higher than before.
Forecast for 2013
Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 0.98 mb/d to average 53.94 mb/d in
2013, representing a downward revision of 40 tb/d from the previous MOMR in terms of
total supply. However, the forecast growth was revised up by 20 tb/d from last month,
with the historical downward revision to the 2012 supply estimates influencing growth in
2013. In absolute terms, total non-OPEC supply is expected to be slightly higher than in
the previous assessment. Compared with the previous month, the downward revisions
affected all quarters of 2013, mainly from carrying over the changes to Australia’s 2012
supply. The OECD supply forecast had the biggest downward revision, while those for
developing countries and the FSU saw the largest upward adjustments. On a regional
basis, OECD Americas’ supply is expected to witness the highest growth among all the
non-OPEC regions in 2013, followed by Latin America and the FSU, while OECD
Europe’s supply is forecast to see the largest decline. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC
supply is expected to average 53.81 mb/d, 53.67 mb/d, 53.88 mb/d and 54.39 mb/d
respectively.
OECD
Total OECD oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.56 mb/d and average 21.58 mb/d in
2013, indicating a downward revision of 110 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The
expected increase is lower than the previous year’s growth, while it is more than
350 tb/d above the average growth of the past five years. The anticipated strong output
increase from OECD Americas lies behind this, supported by projected growth in the
US and Canada, the highest expected growth among all non-OPEC countries in 2013.
The anticipated growth from OECD Americas is seen to more than offset the declines
from OECD Europe and OECD Asia-Pacific. OECD Europe’s supply forecast
experienced a minor upward revision from the previous MOMR. The upward revisions
to individual countries’ supply profiles more than offset the downward revisions. OECD Asia-Pacific’s oil supply outlook was revised down the most from the previous MOMR,
with an impact on all quarters in 2013 on the back of the revision to 2012’s supply
estimates. On a quarterly basis, OECD supply is seen to average 21.61 mb/d,
21.54 mb/d, 21.45 mb/d and 21.71 mb/d respectively. According to preliminary data,
total OECD production averaged 21.60 mb/d in January and February, an increase of
0.46 mb/d from the same period a year ago.
OECD Americas
OECD Americas’ oil supply is projected to increase by 0.74 mb/d, the highest among all
non-OPEC regions, and average 17.45 mb/d in 2013, indicating an upward revision of
15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The forecast supply growth for the US and Canada is
seen to more than offset the reduced decline in Mexico and drive the healthy supply
increase for the region. On a quarterly basis, the region’s supply in 2013 is expected to
stand at 17.44 mb/d, 17.45 mb/d, 17.43 mb/d and 17.50 mb/d respectively.
US
US oil supply is seen to increase by 0.57 mb/d to average 10.58 mb/d in 2013,
indicating a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR for the annual
figure, while growth remained steady. The downward revision affected all quarters on
the back of the historical revision. In addition, updated production data for the early part
of the first quarter supported the revision. North Dakota’s supply declined in January
from the previous month, while Texas’s output continued its healthy growth. The
expected growth in 2013 is supported by the anticipated supply increase from shale oil
plays in North Dakota and Texas, as well as by minor growth from other areas in
Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and Wyoming. The infrastructure situation is improving in
North Dakota, with reports suggesting that the railroad loading capacity will reach
1 mb/d. Eagle Ford oil production in January continued to increase from the same
period a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, US supply is expected to average
10.57 mb/d, 10.62 mb/d, 10.56 mb/d and 10.55 mb/d respectively.
Furthermore, the restart of some ethanol plants in March on the back of lower corn
prices supported the growth. The US ethanol stocks in March reached a 15-month low,
which is expected to support production margins. Moreover, Alaska approved an oil tax
cut which is expected to support oil production in the near future. On the other hand,
reports claimed that many independent operators reduced their capital expenditure in
2013 from the previous year, and this could have a negative impact on growth.
Canada and Mexico
Canada’s oil production is expected to increase by 190 tb/d and average 3.97 mb/d in
2013, representing an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This
revision partly reflects healthy production levels during the early part of 2013. It is
supported by expected healthy growth from oil sand operations, as well as oil
production from shale formations. On a quarterly level, Canada’s supply is seen to surpass 4 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2013, a record high level. The start-up of the
Kearl oil project is expected soon, after delays to the original start-up in December.
However, maintenance is likely to have an impact on output and growth in 2013, with a
long list of facilities starting or expected to start maintenance soon. In addition, the
infrastructure, the projected economic trend and the oil price level are expected to have
an impact on growth in 2013 and beyond. On a quarterly basis, Canada’s supply is
forecast to average 3.93 mb/d, 3.92 mb/d, 3.97 mb/d and 4.07 mb/d respectively.
According to preliminary data, output averaged 3.95 mb/d during January and
February, which is 110 tb/d higher than in the same period last year.
Oil supply from Mexico is expected to average 2.89 mb/d in 2013, indicating a decline
of 30 tb/d from the previous year and representing an upward revision of 20 tb/d from
last month. The upward revision was introduced partly to adjust for updated production
data during the first quarter, which was stronger than anticipated, despite the minor
decline in output in February compared with January. The upward revision was carried
over to the rest of the quarters. The expected start-up of the Kambesah field, as well as
the ramp-up of the Tsimin field, is seen to reduce the decline in 2013. Moreover, the
start-up of shale oil output from the Anhelido well, part of the exploration and
development programme of shale resources, supported the upward revision. On a
quarterly basis, Mexican supply is expected to average 2.93 mb/d, 2.89 mb/d,
2.90 mb/d and 2.89 mb/d respectively. According to preliminary data, the country’s
supply in January and February averaged 2.94 mb/d, an increase of 20 tb/d from the
same period a year earlier.
OECD Europe
OECD Europe’s oil production is projected to decline by 160 tb/d in 2013 from last year
to average 3.61 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous
MOMR. The bulk of the revision came from updated production data in the early part of
2013 that was partly carried across the year, in addition to changes to individual
countries’ supply profiles. The anticipated decline is lower than in the previous year, as
maintenance and unplanned outages are expected to be less in 2013. Oil output from
the region’s main producers is expected to fall in 2013. On a quarterly basis, OECD
Europe’s supply is seen to stand at 3.68 mb/d, 3.60 mb/d, 3.50 mb/d and 3.66 mb/d
respectively.
Norway’s oil supply is predicted to decrease by 110 tb/d and average 1.81 mb/d in
2013, which means a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This
revision came on the back of adjustments to current production data during the early
part of the first quarter, where this data indicated lower output than had been expected.
A four-day shutdown of the Oseberg field on a power outage and a decline in Ekofisk
output supported the downward revision. According to preliminary data, Norway’s
supply averaged 1.83 mb/d during January and February, a decline of 270 tb/d from the
same period a year earlier. A potential strike in April was called off at the last minute.
The supply forecast for the rest of the year has had some minor upward revisions.
These have come on the back of the start-ups of three fast-track fields. The Skuld
(peaking at 35 tb/d by the end of 2013), Stjerne (peaking at 20 tb/d by the end of 2013)
and Vigdis Northeast (peaking at 15 tb/d by the end of 2013) fields started up in March
and are expected to support Norway’s oil supply. On a quarterly basis, the country’s
supply is expected to average 1.84 mb/d, 1.80 mb/d, 1.76 mb/d and 1.85 mb/d
respectively.
The UK’s oil output is forecast to average 0.92 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 40 tb/d from
the previous year and an upward revision of 25 tb/d from last month. This revision has
affected all quarters, with a stronger effect on the first-half estimate. Updated
production data for the early part of the year suggested higher output than expected.
The restart of the Elgin/Franklin field supported the upward revision. Reports suggest
that Elgin/Franklin output will soon reach 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, which is
around 50% of its pre-shutdown level; however, the operator announced further drilling
developments that could improve the facilities’ output. The restoration of Buzzard
output after a short reduction added support to the upward revision. Moreover, the
expected start-up of the Huntington field in April, after delays, is seen to further support
the overall production level. On the other hand, the shutdown of the Cormorant Alpha
facilities is likely to have an impact on supply, as does the shutdown of some ethanol capacity for economic reasons. On a quarterly basis, UK supply is seen to stand at
0.95 mb/d, 0.91 mb/d, 0.87 mb/d and 0.94 mb/d respectively. According to preliminary
data, it averaged 0.97 mb/d during January and February, indicating a decline of
130 tb/d from the same period of 2012.
OECD Asia-Pacific
OECD Asia-Pacific’s oil production is projected to average 0.51 mb/d in 2013, a
decrease of 10 tb/d from the previous year and a downward revision of 145 tb/d from
the last MOMR. The downward revision affected all quarters of 2013 on the back of the
historical adjustment. On a quarterly basis, OECD Asia-Pacific’s supply is expected to
average 0.49 mb/d, 0.50 mb/d, 0.52 mb/d and 0.54 mb/d respectively.
Australian oil output is seen to remain steady in 2013, compared with the previous year,
and average 0.44 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 150 tb/d from the previous
MOMR. This revision came on the back of the historical revision to 2012’s production
data. The new data indicated that the second half of 2012’s supply did not experience
major growth as the data had earlier indicated. Accordingly, the new data was adopted
and carried over to 2013’s supply forecast and required the undertaken downward
revision. Australia’s supply is forecast to experience gradual growth in 2013, supported
by new projects such as the Montara. The growth is seen to be limited due to various
expected maintenance shutdowns, as well as natural declines. On a quarterly basis,
Australian supply is seen to average 0.40 mb/d, 0.43 mb/d, 0.45 mb/d and 0.47 mb/d
respectively.
Developing countries
Total developing countries’ (DCs’) oil production is expected to increase by 0.22 mb/d in
2013 to average 12.35 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 65 tb/d from the previous
MOMR. This revision came about from the oil supply forecasts for Africa, Other Asia
and Latin America, while the Middle East supply projection was revised down. Latin
America remains the region that is expected to experience significant growth in 2013
among all the DC regions, followed by Africa, while the outlook for the others is to
remain relatively steady. The upward revision affected all quarters. The revisions were
introduced to adjust for preliminary production data, as well as for changes to various
countries’ supply elements and some political developments. On a quarterly basis, the
DCs’ total oil supply is expected to stand at 12.17 mb/d, 12.23 mb/d, 12.45 mb/d and
12.55 mb/d respectively. According to preliminary data, DC supply declined by 200 tb/d
on average for January and February, compared with the same period a year earlier,
mainly due to political issues.
Other Asia’s oil production is expected to remain steady in 2013, compared with last year,
with a minor increase of 30 tb/d to average 3.65 mb/d, representing an upward revision of
25 tb/d from the previous MOMR. There were minor upward revisions that affected firstquarter
supply and were carried over to the rest of the quarters. Malaysia’s supply forecast was revised up by 15 tb/d. This revision came on the back of updated production data in the
early part of the first quarter that was carried over to the rest of the year. The country’s
supply is expected to increase by 60 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.72 mb/d. This growth is
supported by the Gumusut field ramp-up. Thailand’s supply saw a minor upward revision of
10 tb/d from the previous month on updated production data. It is seen to average
0.35 mb/d in 2013, steady from the previous year. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s supply
is forecast at 3.63 mb/d, 3.63 mb/d, 3.66 mb/d and 3.67 mb/d respectively.
India’s oil supply is forecast to remain steady in 2013 and average 0.87 mb/d, unchanged
from the previous MOMR. This steady state is expected as the new volumes from the
recently started-up Aishwariya field, part of the Mangala project in Rajasthan, are seen to
offset anticipated natural declines. This field’s output is expected to peak at 10 tb/d in 2013.
Indonesia’s oil supply is seen to decline by 50 tb/d in 2013 on the back of limited new
developments and declines in mature producing areas.
Latin America’s oil output is projected to increase by 0.13 mb/d to average 4.84 mb/d in
2013, indicating an upward revision of 15 tb/d from last month. Argentina’s production is
seen to decline by 20 tb/d in 2013 and average 0.69 mb/d, suggesting a downward
revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. According to preliminary data, the
country’s supply averaged 0.68 mb/d in January and February, a decline of 40 tb/d from
the same period a year earlier. Accordingly, the lower output in the early part of the first
quarter required the undertaken downward revision, which was partly carried over to
the rest of the year. Argentina’s state-controlled operator announced that the high cost
could force it to scale back the drilling programme at the country’s shale oil deposits,
which further supported the downward revision. Colombia’s oil supply is expected to
average 1.02 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 60 tb/d from the previous year and an
upward revision of 10 tb/d from the last MOMR. The upward revision came on the back
of updated production data in the early parts of the first quarter that showed higherthan-
expected production. However, the continued attacks against the energy
infrastructure could have a negative impact on growth in 2013. During January–
February, there were 30 attacks on energy facilities. On a quarterly basis, Latin
American supply is expected to average 4.75 mb/d, 4.77 mb/d, 4.89 mb/d and
4.95 mb/d respectively.
Brazil’s oil supply is expected to increase by 90 tb/d to average 2.69 mb/d in 2013,
steady from the previous MOMR. Current production data in the early parts of the first
quarter came within the expectation of relatively steady supply, compared with the
fourth quarter of 2012’s oil supply. The country’s supply is expected to remain relatively
steady in the first half of 2013 and then grow in the second half. According to
preliminary data, it averaged 2.60 mb/d in January–February, a decline of 150 tb/d from
the same period of 2012. This relative decline came on the back of various shutdowns
in the Campos basin in the Marlim, Marlim Leste and Roncador fields. On a quarterly
basis, Brazil’s supply is seen to stand at 2.62 mb/d, 2.64 mb/d, 2.73 mb/d and
2.78 mb/d respectively.
The Middle East’s oil production is expected to remain steady in 2013 and average
1.50 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous month. This
adjustment came from Bahrain, while other producers’ supply forecasts remained
steady. Bahrain’s supply is expected to average 0.20 mb/d in 2013, a minor increase of
10 tb/d from the previous year and a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the last MOMR.
Updated estimated production data indicated lower output and required the minor
adjustment to the country’s supply. Oman’s production is expected to average
0.94 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 30 tb/d over last year. This is supported by enhanced
oil recovery projects. Syria’s production is expected to average 0.16 mb/d in 2013, a
drop of 40 tb/d from the previous year, and this is driven by the ongoing political turmoil.
Yemen’s supply outlook for 2013 is expected to increase slightly from the previous
year. Attacks on oil infrastructure continue in Yemen and could bring about a downward
revision as output data becomes available. On a quarterly basis, Middle East supply is
expected to average 1.49 mb/d, 1.49 mb/d, 1.50 mb/d, and 1.51 mb/d respectively.
Africa’s oil supply is projected to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 2.37 mb/d,
indicating an upward revision of 35 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Upward revisions
were introduced for Sudan and South Sudan’s, as well as Other Africa’s, supply forecasts. The upward revision for Other Africa was made to adjust for updated
production data in the first quarter that was partly carried over to the rest of the year.
Sudan and South Sudan’s supply is expected to increase by 60 tb/d and average
0.18 mb/d in 2013, representing an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous
MOMR. This revision came on the back of the agreement to restart South Sudan’s flow
and on reports that the country had restarted production. However, the security and
installation damage issues remain unclear at this point. While South Sudan announced
the restart of output, it is not clear how much oil will be produced and how long it will
take to reach the pre-shutdown level. With limited production data, further upward
revisions might be on the horizon, once more details emerge about the situation. On a
quarterly basis, Africa’s supply is expected to average 2.31 mb/d, 2.33 mb/d, 2.40 mb/d
and 2.42 mb/d respectively.
FSU, Other regions
Total FSU oil supply is expected to increase by 110 tb/d to average 13.41 mb/d in 2013,
indicating an upward revision of 25 tb/d from last month. This minor revision came from
Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s supply forecasts. Updated production data during the early
parts of the first quarter was the main driver behind this month’s revisions. The risk and
uncertainty of the forecast remain high for the FSU. The expected increase in FSU
supply is close to the five-year growth average of 0.15 mb/d. Russia’s and
Kazakhstan’s supply is expected to experience growth in 2013, while Azerbaijan’s is
seen to decline. On a quarterly basis, total supply in the FSU is expected to stand at
13.42 mb/d, 13.34 mb/d, 13.38 mb/d and 13.50 mb/d respectively. Other Europe’s
output is forecast to remain steady in 2013 and average 0.14 mb/d, steady from the
previous MOMR. China’s supply is projected to grow by 50 tb/d to average 4.25 mb/d in
2013. According to preliminary data, FSU supply averaged 13.45 mb/d in January–
February, an increase of 90 tb/d over the same period a year earlier.
Russia
Russia’s oil supply is forecast to increase by 60 tb/d to average 10.43 mb/d in 2013,
which would be a minor upward revision of 10 tb/ from the previous report. This revision
was to adjust for updated production data in the first quarter and was partly carried over
to the rest of the year. Russian production remained near record-high levels in March, as
did production in the first quarter generally. The outlook for Russian supply remains
steady, with strong output during the year as the new volumes expected from fields such
as Vankor and Prirazlom are likely to offset the natural declines in mature producing
areas. In addition, the healthy performance of Russia’s oil-operators in the previous year
is supporting brown field investment and moderating the natural declines. According to
preliminary data, Russian supply averaged 10.45 mb/d in March and the first quarter,
indicating an increase of 110 tb/d from the same period a year earlier. Year-on-year (y-oy)
quarterly growth is seen to slow down in the coming quarter, at a time of lower volume
additions from the new fields. The risk to the Russia’s supply forecast remains high on
technical, political and natural decline grounds. On a quarterly basis, Russian supply is
seen to average 10.45 mb/d, 10.43 mb/d, 10.43 mb/d and 10.43 mb/d respectively.
Caspian
Kazakhstan’s oil output is expected to increase by 80 tb/d to average 1.67 mb/d in
2013, indicating an upward revision of 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision
came on the back of updated production figures in the early parts of the first quarter
which turned out to be higher than expected. It was partly carried over to the rest of the
year. The main driver of growth in 2013 will be the start-up of the Kashagan field, which
is expected in the middle of the year. Recently, the government announced an increase
in export taxes which some analysts expect to have an impact on the investment
atmosphere in Kazakhstan. According to preliminary data, Kazakhstan’s supply rose by
50 tb/d on average during January and February, compared with the same period last
year. On a quarterly basis, it is expected to average 1.65 mb/d, 1.62 mb/d, 1.66 mb/d
and 1.74 mb/d respectively.
Azerbaijan’s oil supply is projected to decline by 50 tb/d to average 0.85 mb/d in 2013,
unchanged from the previous report. The expected output drop is seen on the back of a
natural decline in the Azeri–Chirag–Guneshli (ACG) field, with limited new
developments. This field’s output dropped to 665 tb/d in 2012 from 720 tb/d in 2011.
The Azeri government indicated that the country’s output would decline in 2013 to yet a
lower level than in 2012. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s supply is seen to average
0.88 mb/d, 0.84 mb/d, 0.84 mb/d and 0.85 mb/d respectively. According to preliminary
data, it declined by 90 tb/d in January from the same period last year.
China
China’s oil production is seen to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 4.25 mb/d,
indicating a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. This revision came
on the back of adjustments to current production data in the early parts of the first
quarter. It took place despite the start-up of the Beibu Gulf project, which is expected to
peak at 15 tb/d. China’s supply declined in January and February on a monthly basis.
The decline came mainly from the offshore oil production, which averaged 730 tb/d in
February, compared with 890 tb/d in December. In February, China’s production
averaged 4.22 mb/d, slightly lower than in the previous month and indicating growth of
40 tb/d, compared with the same month a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, China’s
supply is seen to average 4.26 mb/d, 4.21 mb/d, 4.24 mb/d and 4.29 mb/d respectively.
OPEC natural gas liquids and non-conventional oils
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are estimated to have averaged 5.75 mb/d in
2012, representing growth of 0.38 mb/d over the previous year. In 2013, they are
forecast to increase by a further 0.23 mb/d to average 5.98 mb/d.
OPEC crude oil production
Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.19 mb/d in March, according to
secondary sources, a decrease of 100 tb/d from last month. The crude oil output
decreased from Nigeria, Iran. OPEC crude oil production, not including Iraq, average
27.10 mb/d in March, a drop of 119 tb/d compared to previous month.
World Oil Supply
Preliminary figures indicate that global oil supply remained steady in March and
average 90.00 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply saw an increase of 0.10 mb/d in March
compared to the previous month. The share of OPEC crude oil production decreased to
33.5% in March. The estimate is based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply,
estimates for OPEC NGLs and OPEC crude production based on secondary sources.
