SUMMARY: Total domestic petroleum deliveries for November were down from a year ago – but only because of a sharp decline for residual fuel oil. (”Deliveries” are a measure of demand.) Deliveries of that product dropped by a sharp, half-million barrels per day from a year ago, when costly natural gas had sent many industrial and utility users with fuel-switching capability searching for less expensive fuels such as residual fuel oil. Including resid’s decline, deliveries of all products for November were down 2.1 percent from November 2005. Excluding residual fuel oil’s more than 50 percent decline, deliveries of all other products rose 0.4 percent.
As for gasoline, deliveries’ surprisingly strong growth in October, when retail prices were plummeting, abated in November as retail prices inched upwards. Deliveries for November showed an increase of only 0.2 percent over year-ago levels. Still, over the past three months taken together, gasoline deliveries have averaged more than 3 percent higher than a year ago, contrasting with much weaker growth earlier in the year. November’s distillate deliveries rose by 4.8 percent, and jet fuel deliveries, by 1.8 percent compared with a year ago. Deliveries of “other oils” were also slightly ahead of November 2005’s level.
Processing at refineries, reflected in refinery inputs, fell to the lowest level since April as refiners continued their autumn maintenance schedules before the peak heating season arrived. Compared with November 2005, when several refineries had continued to be offline due to the effects of Katrina and Rita, inputs were up only 0.2 percent. Distillate production continued at extraordinary levels in November, remaining above 4.0 million barrels per day for the seventh consecutive month and reaching a new high for November. Production of the new, “clean diesel” reached a new record of nearly 2.8 million barrels per day in November, up 3.9 percent from October. Gasoline production fell below 9.0 million barrels per day for the first time in seven months. However, at 8.8 million barrels per day, it was nevertheless the highest ever recorded for the month of November, up 1.7 percent from one year earlier.
November’s crude and product imports each fell to their lowest respective levels in more than two years. Crude oil imports declined by close to 7 percent from a year earlier to 9.8 million barrels per day, and product imports by 24 percent to less than 3 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports (including blending components) slipped below one million barrels per day for the first time in ten months, while distillate imports declined to their lowest level since September 2005. Jet fuel imports also faltered, and resid imports reached their lowest level in nearly five years.
Meanwhile, November’s crude oil inventories inched upwards for the fourth consecutive month to 334 million barrels. This was their highest November level since 1998 and 12 percent above the historical five-year average. While distillate inventories declined 1.6 percent over the month, at 139 million barrels they remained at the highest November level since 1999. For the first time in five months, gasoline inventories, at 201 million barrels, lagged last year, ending November about 2 percent lower than a year ago and 3 percent below the five-year average. Kerosine jet fuel inventories fell to their lowest level since March 2005, and at 38 million barrels, were 7 percent below their five-year average for the month.
November’s domestic crude production remained at nearly 5.2 million barrels per day for the second consecutive month. Though, compared with the year-ago levels depressed by the devastation of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, production averaged 6.8 percent higher, compared with November two years ago, it lagged by 4.2 percent. November’s Alaskan production fell by more than 20 percent from a year earlier. This reflected loading-site inventories that had already topped out as extreme wind and waves interfered with tanker loadings at Valdez. Production in the lower 48 rose for the third consecutive month to nearly 4.5 million barrels per day, the highest level since June 2005.
