World Oil Supply - July 2017

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2017 was revised down by 0.05 mb/d from the previous MOMR to average 57.82 mb/d, an increase of 0.80 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this downward revision is a lower assessment of oil supply in the OECD in the 2H17.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is projected to grow by 1.14 mb/d, to average 58.96 mb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, Congo and the UK are the main growth drivers, while Mexico, China, Colombia and Azerbaijan are expected to see declines. The 2018 forecast is subject to many uncertainties, such as; oil prices, hedging in the US, cost inflation, production taxes, etc.

OPEC NGLs production in 2017 and 2018 is expected to grow by 0.17 mb/d and 0.18 mb/d to average 6.31 mb/d and 6.49 mb/d, respectively. In June, OPEC production increased by 393 tb/d to average 32.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources, also non-OPEC supply including OPEC NGLs up by 270 tb/d to average 63.98 mb/d. As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply increased by 0.66 mb/d in June, to average 96.59 mb/d.

Non-OPEC supply in 2017 and 2018
Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.80 mb/d in 2017 to average 57.82 mb/d, revised down by 0.05 mb/d from the previous MOMR. It is estimated that OECD oil supply will increase by 0.74 mb/d to average 25.56 mb/d, a downward revision of 0.12 mb/d compared with the June publication. This adjustment was made following output disruptions in 2Q17 in Canada due to explosion and fire in Syncrude's Mildred Lake oilsands upgrader north of Fort McMurray. Canadian oil supply growth in 2017 was revised down by 51 tb/d, to now average 0.21 mb/d. Moreover, lower than expected US crude oil output in 2Q17, due to weak WTI prices, rising costs and the breakeven levels for tight crude producers, further added to a downward revision in the OECD’s oil supply in the 2H17. In the North Sea, the UK production forecast has also been revised down by 54 tb/d following a new assessment carried out for the 2H17. However, according to latest estimates, by the end of June, compared to the previous month, oil supply for 2017 was revised up in developing countries (DCs), FSU and China, by 20 tb/d, 41 tb/d and 24 tb/d, respectively.

Overall, growth is expected for total non-OPEC supply in 2017 following the strong return of US tight oil production after last year’s downturn. US tight oil has come back with higher drilling efficiencies, better well performance and lower wellhead breakeven prices that are now more attractive for investment. Non-OPEC supply is predicted to show a mild growth of 0.23 mb/d in 2H17 versus 1H17, while oil supply in the US is expected to increase by 0.68 mb/d over the same period. The main factors for higher growth expectations in 2017 compared to last year are the current higher oil prices (despite the slight drop recently), and the increasing number of active rigs in North America as well as the remarkable investment.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 1.14 mb/d compared to 2017, to average 58.96 mb/d. This is slightly less than the expected increase in global demand. A ‘bottom-up’ field-by-field analysis of new projects indicates that non-OPEC liquids production growth will strengthen next year given current global upstream activities, particularly those in the North America. Nevertheless, the forecast for nonOPEC supply in 2018 is associated with a high level of uncertainties.

The expected growth in most non-OPEC regions in 2017 is expected to continue in 2018, led by OECD Americas with 0.86 mb/d, FSU with 0.20 mb/d, Latin America with 0.12 mb/d, OECD Europe with 0.08 mb/d, Africa with 0.07 mb/d and OECD Asia Pacific with 0.04 mb/d. However, declines in 2018 are anticipated in China, Other Asia and the Middle East at 0.16 mb/d, 0.05 mb/d and 0.05 mb/d, respectively.

On a country basis, the US is the main contributor to the growth with 0.86 mb/d, followed by Brazil with 0.22 mb/d, Canada with 0.17 mb/d, Russia with 0.17 mb/d, Kazakhstan with 0.09 mb/d, the UK with 0.08 mb/d, Congo with 0.08 mb/d, Australia with 0.05 mb/d and Ghana with 0.04 mb/d.

In terms of the major declines, these are led by Mexico at 0.17 mb/d, China at 0.16 mb/d, Colombia at 0.08 mb/d, Azerbaijan at 0.05 mb/d, Oman at 0.04 mb/d, and Vietnam and Indonesia, at 0.03 mb/d.

OECD
Total OECD oil supply in 2017 is expected to grow by 0.74 mb/d to average 25.56 mb/d. This is revised down by 0.12 mb/d from the last MOMR. OECD Americas is forecast to see an increase of 0.76 mb/d y-o-y, while oil supply in OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific will show a contraction of 80 tb/d and 40 tb/d to average 3.80 mb/d and 0.41 mb/d, respectively.

For 2018, a yearly growth of 0.99 mb/d is anticipated for OECD oil supply, with an average of 26.55 mb/d. OECD Americas, Europe and the Asia Pacific are all expected to grow next year by 0.86 mb/d, 0.08 mb/d and 0.04 mb/d, with averages of 22.22 mb/d, 3.88 mb/d and 0.45 mb/d, respectively.

OECD Americas
OECD Americas’ oil supply in 2017 is estimated to grow by 0.76 mb/d y-o-y to average 21.36 mb/d. This is a downward revision of 115 tb/d from the previous MOMR report. Supply from the US and Canada is expected to increase in 2017, while that of Mexico is anticipated to decline by 0.17 mb/d, y-o-y.

Oil supply growth will continue in 2018 at 0.86 mb/d y-o-y to average 22.22 mb/d. Estimated growth of 0.86 mb/d and 0.17 mb/d is anticipated for the US and Canada, respectively, but a further contraction of 0.17 mb/d is anticipated for Mexico.

US
US liquids supply in 2017 is anticipated to grow by 0.73 mb/d to average 14.35 mb/d. This is revised down by 70 tb/d from the previous MOMR. US liquids output in April witnessed a drop of 88 tb/d m-o-m to 13.97 mb/d, but it was higher by 0.27 mb/d y-o-y. US crude oil production reached an average of 9.08 mb/d in April – 24 tb/d lower than a month ago – according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude oil output in April increased by 0.14 mb/d, compared to the same month in April 2016, yet up by more than 0.5 mb/d since it bottomed out in September 2016. Crude oil output in April declined by 35 tb/d and 101 tb/d in Texas and to Gulf of Mexico (GoM), to average 3.34 mb/d and 1.66 mb/d, respectively, while production increased in both North Dakota and New Mexico. It is expected that June production in the GoM will be affected due to the shut-in of approximately 17% of its production or about 0.3 mb/d, ahead of Tropical Storm Cindy, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reported.

Total NGLs output in April was reported at 3.63 mb/d, representing a minor downward revision for April vs. March, albeit higher by 129 tb/d compared to the average of April 2016. This was mainly due to unconventional sources of tight formations. Capital spending for 22 US natural gas producers increased y-o-y in 1Q17, following almost two years of annual declines. It is expected that the production of condensate and other NGLs will grow continuously after natural gas future prices rose from average $1.98/million BTU in 1Q16 to $3.06/million BTU in 1Q17. The EIA’s forecast is for dry natural gas production to rise to an average of 76.6 Bcf/d in 2018, up from an expected 73.3 Bcf/d in 2017. In the GoM, 0.68 mb/d of oil production out of a total of 1.68 mb/d in 2017 is expected to come from 21 fields that are in the process of ramping up production. These fields are expected to push production up from an average of 1.61 mb/d in 2016, to 1.68 mb/d in 2017 and then 1.75 mb/d in 2018.

In the US, there are a number of factors to consider. The general consensus among analysts is that operational cost inflation will rise by around 20% in 2017 and it has also been noted that average well productivity will not be the same as in the recent past as operators shift from sweet spots to the surrounding area. Moreover, current oil prices below $50/b are likely to limit drilling activities and spending. Despite these developments, the pace of growth is expected to remain steady, with a minor upward trend expected in 2018. Although tight crude production is sensitive to price, US shale and tight oil producers have become more capable of producing in marginal breakeven prices. Surprisingly, the decline of tight crude production from unconventional sources in 2016 despite low oil prices was lower than (-312 tb/d) the decline of conventional crude production.

Tight crude and GoM production is forecast to grow by 0.62 mb/d and 0.07 mb/d, respectively, while production of crude oil from onshore conventional sources is expected to see a decline of 0.15 mb/d. These developments are expected to result in US crude oil average output at 0.55 mb/d for 2018. Growth for NGLs and biofuels is expected at 0.30 mb/d and 15 tb/d, respectively, based on the current trend for NGLs output.

US oil rig count
According to Baker Hughes' latest survey, for the week ending 7 July, total US rig count increased by 12 rigs w-o-w to 952 units. This includes additional five gas rigs, taking the total number to 189 units, and seven oil rigs, taking the total to 763 units. This means that the US oil rig count has risen by 512 y-o-y.

On a monthly basis, the total US oil rig count in June was at 750 rigs, an increase of 32 rigs m-o-m, up by 412 rigs y-o-y. The oil rig count in the Permian Basin was at 369, representing a decline of 1, w-o-w although higher by 211 y-o-y. In the Eagle Ford shale, Williston Basin and DJ-Niobrara, the oil rig count remained unchanged w-o-w at 84, 52 and 27, respectively. The number of active rigs in the GoM was at 21 rigs, split between 18 offshore oil rigs and three gas rigs, unchanged w-o-w.

In terms of drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) wells, 176 wells were added to the inventory in May 2017. This is the sixth straight monthly increase. The US total now stands at 5,946 DUCs, up from a post-downturn low of 4,913 in November 2016. Operators started building up an inventory of DUCs in 2014 as oil prices collapsed. It made more financial sense to delay the most productive early life of a well until prices moved higher.

Canada
Following a wildfire in one of Canada’s upgraders and weaker-than-expected output in 2Q17, at 4.57 mb/d compared to 4.96 mb/d in 1Q17, Canada’s production in 2017 is predicted to grow at a slower pace than was expected in the previous MOMR. Growth is now expected at 0.21 mb/d y-o-y, a downward revision of 51 tb/d. Syncrude Canada cut its production forecast for the month of June to 5.8 mb/month compared to the full capacity of 11 mb/month. The 350 tb/d Syncrude project has been operating at reduced rates since a fire in March damaged the facility.

Canada is expanding its oil production mainly through various oil sands projects in Alberta. In 2018, Surmont phase 2 is expected to start up production and plateau at 118 tb/d in 2019, following a peak output of 27 tb/d from phase 1 in 2017. The production ramp up of Syncrude in stage 1 and 2 in the Mildred Lake & Auora project is also anticipated to add 47 tb/d in 2018, before reaching an estimated plateau level of 427 tb/d in 2019. In 2018, production expansions also include the ramp up in Sunrise, MacKay River phase 1 operated by PetroChina, Kearl phase 2, Horizon phase 3, Foster Creek phase F, Duvernay, Cold Lake phase 14-16, Christian Lake phase 1F, the thermal project of Lloyd, as well as the start-up of the new project of Fort Hills phase 1. It is anticipated that Canadian oil supply will grow by 0.17 mb/d to average 4.89 mb/d in 2018.

Mexico
Mexican liquids production in 2017 is expected to witness a significant decline, dropping by 0.17 mb/d to average 2.30 mb/d. Mexican crude oil production in May was lower y-o-y by 154 tb/d at 2.02 mb/d, weighed down by high decline rates, while NGLs output, despite a minor decline m-o-m in May, is at an average y-t-d level of 0.3 mb/d, a similar level to last year’s average. Mexico’s total liquids output in May increased by 10 tb/d, to reach an average of 2.32 mb/d. It is expected that the production ramp up of the offshore Ku-Maloob-Zaap Project (K.M.Z ) field will continue in 2017 and 2018, increasing by 43 tb/d and 37 mb/d, respectively. There are also expected to minor increases in 2017 from smaller fields such as; Ayatsil-TekelUtsil, Roza Rica, Chicontepec, Veracruz and Apertura. However, the outlook for Mexico liquids supply in 2018 indicates a further decline of 0.17 mb/d, with annual average output at 2.13 mb/d.

OECD Europe
Total OECD Europe oil supply, which grew by 0.03 mb/d to average 3.80 mb/d in 2016, is expected to decline by 10 tb/d to around 3.80 mb/d in 2017. This is revised down by 12 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. For 2018, a growth of 0.08 mb/d is expected y-o-y, mainly from the UK, with an average annual level of 3.88 mb/d.

Norway
Norway’s oil supply is expected to grow by 20 tb/d y-o-y, to average 2.01 mb/d in 2017. This is revised up by 34 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. Preliminary production figures for May 2017 show an average daily production of 1.98 mb/d from oil, NGLs and condensate, which indicates a drop of 128 tb/d compared to April. In terms of the breakdown, crude oil output in May was down by 91 tb/d, to average 1.61 mb/d, with NGLs and condensate down by 0.35 mb/d and 18 tb/d, respectively. Oil production is about 2.8% higher than in May 2016, about 1.9% above the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD’s ) prognosis for May 2017. According to the seasonal pattern for the maintenances, another m-o-m decline is expected for June. The Statoil-operated 60 tb/d field Gina Krog on the Utsira High in the North Sea started producing 30 June. The recoverable reserves in Gina Krog total about 106 mb of oil, 11.8 billion standard m3 of gas and 3.2 million tonnes of NGLs. This means that three out of the four fields on Utsira High are producing. The Edvard Grieg field started in November 2015, while Ivar Aasen followed in December last year. Johan Sverdrup field is expected to start producing in late 2019. For 2018, Norway’s oil supply is forecasted to see no growth next year. Total production is expected to be around the same level as 2017 at 2.01 mb/d. The decline rate in 2018 is anticipated to offset the new volume added from production ramp ups.

UK
UK’s oil supply is predicted to decline by 30 tb/d y-o-y to average 0.99 mb/d in 2017. This is revised down by 54 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. UK’s liquids production in May 2017 increased by 36 tb/d m-o-m, to average 1.07 mb/d, with crude oil accounting for 0.94 mb/d. However, crude oil output in May was lower y-o-y by 32 tb/d. The recent start-ups include the redevelopment of the Montrose Area and Quad 204 project in May. These have also helped compensate the production outages from some small fields in April. The production trend indicates lower output by 20 tb/d in 2Q17, with an average of 1.04 mb/d. This is partially the result of June maintenance in the Forties, Alma, and some other oil fields.

The production ramp ups in 2018 are expected to come from fields such as; Alma/Galia, Britannia, Kraken, Monarb redevelopment project, Ninian, Quad 201, Scoty/Crathes and Solan, while the expected growth of 80 tb/d in 2018 will also maintain from these two fields – Greater Catcher and Greater Stella Area. UK’s oil supply is expected to reach an average of 1.07 mb/d in 2018.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacific’s oil supply is expected to decline by 20 tb/d in 2017 to average 0.41 mb/d. This unchanged from the previous month’s report. Australia’s oil supply is anticipated to decline by 20 tb/d to average 0.33 mb/d. This is due to weak output in the 1Q17 and the 2Q17, compared to the 4Q16. Oil production in 1H17 was down by 40 tb/d, compared to the same period last year. Nevertheless, for 2018, through the development of gas/condensate fields such as Great Gorgon, Ichthys, Kipper Tuna Turrum, North West Shelf Venture and Greater Western, Prelude, Wheatstone and other small fields, it is expected that the output of condensate and NGLs will expand the Australian oil supply by 50 tb/d to average 0.39 mb/d. However, production is expected to decline by 10 tb/d to 0.06 mb/d in Other OECD Asia Pacific (New Zealand, South Korea and Japan). Overall, OECD Asia Pacific’s oil supply is estimated to increase by 40 tb/d, to average 0.45 mb/d in 2018.

Developing Countries
Total oil output from developing countries (DCs) is expected to reach an average of 12.02 mb/d in 2017. This represents a growth of 0.11 mb/d, compared with a contraction of 0.11 mb/d in 2016. The expected growth for 2017 was revised up by 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The main reason for this revision is due to higher estimated output coming from Indonesia, with a lower decline rate assumed for 2017. With continued field development in Africa in 2018, a growth of 0.09 mb/d is anticipated for DCs’ oil supply next year, with an average of 12.12 mb/d.

Other Asia
Other Asia’s oil production is estimated to decline by 40 tb/d in 2017 to average 3.67 mb/d. This is revised up by 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. It is expected that oil output in Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam will decline by a total of 60 tb/d, while oil production in India and Other Asia is anticipated to grow by 20 tb/d and 10 tb/d, respectively. In Indonesia, production ramp ups from the Banyu Urip and Bukit Tua oil fields, as well as NGLs and condensate from Donggi-Senoro, will likely add new output in 2017 and 2018. Other countries in this region are expected to remain unchanged from a year earlier. In 2018, the contraction will be more or less at the same level, with anticipated production growth of 40 tb/d in India and 10 tb/d in Asia others, while other countries in the region are expected to see declines.

Latin America
Latin America’s oil supply is estimated to increase by 0.14 mb/d to average 5.25 mb/d in 2017. This is unchanged from the previous MOMR. Latin America is the second-highest growth driver in 2017, among the non-OPEC regions. Brazil is the only country in the region set to witness growth this year. Oil production in Colombia is expected to decline by 60 tb/d, to average 0.84 mb/d, with declines also forecast in Argentina (10 tb/d) to average 0.67 mb/d, Trinidad and Tobago (10 tb/d), and Latin America others (20 tb/d). For 2018, oil supply in the region is estimated to grow by 0.12 mb/d, mainly from Brazil, with average output at 5.37 mb/d. It is expected that there will be a further y-o-y decline in Colombia, where the mature oil fields are in heavy decline and where no new fields are expected to bring additional volumes on stream.

Brazil
Brazil’s liquids supply is expected to average 3.38 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.24 mb/d over the previous year. This is an upward revision of 24 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The growth is expected to come from production ramp ups in the Lapa field, Lula (the most growth in 2017), Parque das Baleia, Roncador-2, Sapinhoa, Tartaruga Verde & Mestica, as well as new Libra project. Through an increase in crude oil output in May of 82 tb/d, total liquids production increased to 3.30 mb/d, with 2.62 mb/d from crude oil, 0.11 mb/d from NGLs and 0.57 m/d from biofuels.

Petrobras registered its first domestic 2017 production increase in May, with the company completing maintenance work at several offshore platforms. This maintenance, however, meant that crude exports slowed in April, official data showed. While FPSO Cidade De Angra Dos Reis ramped up in April, which meant sub-salt output showed an increase of 415 tb/d y-o-y, at the same time, oil output from post-salt reservoirs in the Campos Basin dropped to 1.35 mb/d, indicating a decline of 120 tb/d over the last year. The Campos Basin’s production includes several sub-salt prospects, and accounts for nearly two-thirds of Brazil’s crude oil output.

It should also be noted that an accident in June saw an oil leak cause a production shutdown at Petrobras’ P-35 floating production, storage and offloading vessel in the Marlim Field in Brazil’s Campos Basin. Petrobras did not say how long production from the FPSO would be shut in. The P-35 produced 23,807 b/d of oil and 366,850 cu m/d of natural gas in March, according to the latest production data from the National Petroleum Agency (ANP).

For 2018, Brazil’s total liquids supply is expected to grow at a slower pace compared to 2017. Growth is estimated at 0.22 mb/d, with an output average of 3.59 mb/d.

Africa
Africa’s oil supply is projected to grow by 50 tb/d to average 1.87 mb/d in 2017 (excluding Equatorial Guinea that joined OPEC on 25 May 2017). It is expected that oil production in 2017 will grow in Congo by 40 tb/d, to average 0.35 mb/d, Ghana by 70 tb/d, to average 0.17 mb/d and Chad by 20 tb/d, to average 0.13 mb/d. Production in Egypt, Sudans, and Africa other is anticipated to decline in 2017, while oil output in South Africa is estimated not to change compared to a year earlier. For 2018, oil supply in non-OPEC countries in Africa is expected to grow by 70 tb/d, mainly from Congo and Ghana.

In Congo, French group Total has started production from the Moho Nord deepwater project, 75 km offshore of Pointe-Noire. The production capacity is 100 tboe/d. Moho Nord is the biggest oil development to date in Congo. The development involves the drilling of 34 wells tied back to a new tension leg platform, the first for Total in offshore Africa, and to Likouf, a new floating production unit. Oil is processed on Likouf then exported by pipeline to the Djeno onshore terminal, also operated by Total. In addition, production from Nene Marine and Benguela-Belize satellite (Lianzi) is estimated to boost Congo’s oil production by 40 tb/d and 80 tb/d in 2017 and 2018, respectively, with average output of 0.42 mb/d next year.

Ghana's oil output is expected to continue to rise to reach an average of 0.17 mb/d this year. Production from the integrated oil and gas development project on the Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) block 60 km offshore western Ghana by Eni SPA began on 22 June. The OCTP development comprises Sankofa Main, Sankofa East, and Gye-Nyame fields, which altogether have 770 million boe in place, of which 500 mb is oil and 270 million boe is non-associated gas, or about 40 billion cu m. Production is carried out through the John Agyekum Kufuor floating production, storage, and offloading unit, which is expected to produce as much as 85,000 boe/d via 18 underwater wells. Production ramp up from the ‘TEN’ project not only offsets losses from the Jubilee field, but also adds new capacity. Oil output in Ghana is estimated to expand by 40 tb/d in 2018, to reach a level of 0.21 mb/d.

FSU
Oil production in the FSU is expected to grow by 70 tb/d to average 13.93 mb/d in 2017. This indicates an upward revision of 41 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. Russia’s oil output is expected to see a contraction of 10 tb/d in 2017, to average 11.07 mb/d, with a contraction of 60 tb/d also anticipated in Azerbaijan. Output from Kazakhstan is expected to grow by 0.14 mb/d this year. For 2018, FSU oil supply is estimated to grow by 0.2 mb/d, mainly coming from Russia (0.17 mb/d) and Kazakhstan (0.09 mb/d). Azerbaijan and FSU others are expected to see a contraction of 50 tb/d and 20 tb/d, respectively.

Russia
Russian oil output fell to 11.06 mb/d in May and June. It is expected that the country’s 2017 liquids production (including NGLs) will average 11.07 mb/d, indicating a contraction of 10 tb/d y-o-y. Crude oil output was at 10.30 mb/d in May and June 2017, lower by 44 tb/d compared to April 2017. This is also 209 tb/d lower than the level 10.51 mb/d in October 2016. NGLs output was stagnant at 0.76 mb/d in April, May and June 2017.

Higher spending and more drilling activities were witnessed in 2015 and 2016, which led to a growth in oil production, leading to a decrease of the approximated annual decline rate by 2.5%. According to the OPEC production adjustment agreement, Russian production is expected to maintain its production adjustment up to 1Q18, thus increasing its oil supply by 0.17 mb/d to average 11.24 mb/d for the year.

Caspian
In the Caspian, by continuation of the production ramp up of Kazakhstan’s Kashagan offshore field that sees estimated output growth of 0.14 mb/d in 2017, it is expected that the country’s average annual output will expand by 90 tb/d in 2018, to reach a level of 1.79 mb/d. This forecast is based on the assumption that their oil output remains unchanged at the level of 1.68 mb/d until 1Q18. In Azerbaijan, due to a lack of new project start-ups, the annual oil production decline, which witnessed in 2017 will likely continue at more or less the same level of around 50-60 tb/d, to average 0.74 mb/d. It is estimated that the country’s oil supply will decline by 60 tb/d, to average 0.79 mb/d. The main oil output in Azerbaijan currently comes from the AzeriChirag-Guneshli field.

China
China’s supply in 2017 is expected to decline by 0.13 mb/d over the previous year to average 3.97 mb/d. This will be the first year the country’s production fell below 4.0 mb/d since 2009. The overall number has been revised up by 24 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Crude oil output in May 2017 fell by 62 tb/d to average 3.83 mb/d, the lowest level since December 2009, a decrease of 0.14 mb/d, y-o-y. China’s total liquids supply in May decreased by 58 tb/d to 3.97 mb/d. It is expected that the output in 2H17 will decline by 80 tb/d compare to 1H17, and average 3.93 mb/d for the year. For 2018, it is expected that the annual decline will be even higher at 0.16 mb/d, with output averaging 3.81 mb/d.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2017 have been revised up by 90 tb/d following Equatorial Guinea’s joining OPEC to average 6.31 mb/d. This highlights a growth of 0.17 mb/d, y-o-y. In 2018, due to the number of planned projects, a growth of 0.18 mb/d y-o-y is anticipated, with average output at 6.22 mb/d. These projects are expected to be mainly in IR Iran and Saudi Arabia.

OPEC crude oil production
According to secondary sources, total OPEC-14 crude oil production averaged 32.61 mb/d in June, an increase of 393 tb/d over the previous month. Crude oil output increased mostly in Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, while production showed declines in Venezuela.

World oil supply
Preliminary data indicates that global oil supply increased by 0.66 mb/d to average 96.59 mb/d in June 2017, compared with the previous month. The increase of non-OPEC supply (including OPEC NGLs) by 0.27 mb/d mainly driven by Canada production returning from the wildfire as well as OPEC crude oil production by 0.39 mb/d in June led to an increase global oil output. The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production increased slightly by 0.2 pp to 33.8% in June compared with the previous month at 33.6%. Estimates are based on preliminary data from direct communication for non-OPEC supply, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oil, while estimates for OPEC crude production are based on secondary sources.