OECD commercial stocks fell further in January, after a substantial decline in
4Q13. Inventories stood at 142 mb below the five-year average, divided between
crude (19 mb) and products (123 mb). In terms of days of forward cover, OECD
commercial stocks fell by 0.1 days in January to stand at 56.2 days. This is
around two days lower than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for
February shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by 1.2 mb after falling
by more than 100 mb during the last four months. Inventories stood at 32.0 mb
below the latest five-year average, however, crude remained around 8.0 mb
above the seasonal norm. Chinese total oil commercial inventories rose strongly
by 28.1 mb in January driven by the build of crude and products, which
increased by 8.2 mb and 19.9 mb, respectively.
OECD
Preliminary data for January shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks declined
by 10.4 mb for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 2,567 mb. At this level,
inventories were around 130 mb below the same period of the previous year and
showed a deficit of 142 mb compared with the five-year average.
Within the components, the improvement of demand in the OECD led to a drop in
product stocks by around 11.6 mb, while crude oil commercial stocks rose slightly by
1.2 mb driven by lower refinery runs, following the start of refinery maintenance. At
1,243 mb, OECD crude commercial inventories stood 19.4 mb below the seasonal
norm, and 30.4 mb less than the same period a year ago. Product stocks stood at
1,314 mb, indicating a deficit of 123 mb below the five-year average and coming in
around 99 mb lower than the same time one year earlier.
In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.1 days in
January to stand at 56.2 days. This is around two days lower than the latest five-year
average and around 2.7 days below the same month last year. OECD Americas was
1.5 days below the historical average at 54.5 days in January and OECD Europe stood
at 2.2 days below the seasonal average to finish the month at 66.3 days. Meanwhile,
OECD Asia-Pacific indicated a deficit of 2.4 days, averaging 44.8 days.
In January, commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 20.8 mb for the fourth
consecutive month to stand at 1,297 mb. With this drop, inventories were 30.5 mb
below the seasonal norm, and they stood 67 mb below a year ago at the same time.
At the end of January, crude commercial oil stocks in OECD Americas rose slightly
by 0.4 mb versus the previous month following a massive drop of about 77 mb during
the last two months. At 650 mb, OECD Americas’ crude oil commercial stocks finished
the month at 15.6 mb above the latest five-year average, but 18.0 mb less than a year
ago at the same time.
The slight rise in OECD Americas’ commercial crude oil stocks came mainly from
higher US crude oil imports, which averaged 7.4 mb/d. At the same time, the fall in
refinery crude runs to 15.6 mb/d also contributed to the build in crude oil stocks.
OECD Americas’ product stocks fell in January, declining by 21.2 mb to finish at
647 mb. This represents a deficit of 46 mb below the seasonal norm, and 49 mb below
the same time a year ago. The bulk of the drop came from middle distillates which fell
by 14 mb, while gasoline stocks experienced a build. Severe winter weather in the
US left the distillates market tight as shown by a deficit of 41.0 mb below the latest
five-year average, while gasoline stocks remained in line with the seasonal norm.
In January, OECD Europe’s commercial stocks rose by 8.1mb, reversing the drop of
the past three months. At 890 mb, OECD Europe’s commercial stocks stood at 92.0 mb
below the seasonal norm and 40 mb less than one year ago at the same time.
OECD Europe’s crude oil stocks fell slightly in January by 0.4 mb, following a drop of
5 mb in December. At 383 mb, crude oil stocks indicated a deficit of 13.3 mb below the
seasonal norm, while they stood 7.4 mb above the same time a year ago. This drop is
mainly due to lower supply outpacing the decline in demand for crude.
In contrast, OECD Europe’s commercial product stocks rose by 8.5 mb in January
for the second consecutive month, driven by relatively weaker demand in the region.
At 507 mb, OECD Europe commercial product inventories showed a deficit of 78 mb
below the seasonal norm and stood at 48 mb below a year ago at the same time. The
major products, namely gasoline and distillates, saw a build of around 2 mb and 6 mb,
respectively.
Commercial inventories in OECD Asia-Pacific rose by 2.3 mb in January after
declining by 16 mb in December. At 380 mb, they were 22 mb below the same period a
year ago and 20 mb lower than the latest five-year average. Within the components,
both crude and product inventories rose by 1.2 mb and 1.1 mb, respectively. Crude
inventories ended the month of January at 210 mb and stood at 19 mb below one
year ago and 22 mb lower than the seasonal norm. OECD Asia-Pacific’s total product
inventories indicated a deficit of 2.3 mb compared with one year ago but showed a
surplus of 1.3 mb over the seasonal norm.
EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for January shows that European stocks rose by 8.2 mb, reversing
the fall of the last two months to stand at 1,070.4 mb. Despite this build, European
stocks stood at 18.6 mb or 1.7% lower than the same time one year ago, and are
57.7 mb or 5.1% below the five-year average. Products saw a build of 8.5 mb, while
crude oil stocks dropped slightly by 0.4 mb.
European crude inventories were virtually unchanged from December and ended the
month of January at 465.5 mb. Crude inventories were 12.9 mb or 2.9% above the
same period last year, but are in line with the latest five-year average. Crude demand
remained weak as European refinery runs were just 115,000 b/d higher than in
December, averaging 9.7 mb/d. Average utilization was only 78%, the fifth successive
month that it has been below 80%.
In contrast, OECD Europe’s product stocks rose by 8.5 mb in January, following a
build of 1.5 mb in December. Despite this build, European stocks were 31.5 mb or
4.9% below the same level one year ago and 57.8 mb or 8.7% below the seasonal
norm. With the exception of naphtha, all other products experienced builds.
Gasoline stocks rose by 1.9 mb in January to stand at 111.0 mb, a deficit of 4.5 mb or
3.9% below a year ago and 9.6 mb or 7.9% less than the five-year average. The build
came from relatively higher refinery output. Weak domestic demand also contributed to
the build in European gasoline stocks. The January build was also a result of lower
exports to the US East Coast (USEC).
Distillate stocks also rose by 5.6 mb, ending January at 390.0 mb. At this level,
distillate stocks showed a deficit of 11.0 mb or 2.7% below a year ago and 17.0 mb or
4.2% lower than the seasonal norm. Mild weather, which capped domestic demand,
along with higher gasoil imports from Russia contributed to the build in distillate stocks.
Residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.5 mb, reversing the fall of the last six months and
ending January at 80.2 mb. At this level, they were 6.6 mb or 7.6% below the same
time the previous year and 22.0 mb or 21.5% less than the seasonal average. Weak
bunker demand in the region contributed to the build in residual fuel oil stocks.
Naphtha stocks fell by 0.4 mb in January, reversing the build of last month to stand at
23.8 mb. At this level, they remained 9.4 mb or 28.4% below a year ago at the same
time and 9.3 mb or 28.0% below the five-year average.
US
Preliminary data for February shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by
1.2 mb after falling by more than 100 mb during the last four months. At 1,034.9 mb,
inventories stood at 32.0 mb or 3.0% below the latest five-year average, indicating a
deficit of 59.9 mb or 5.5% compared with one year ago. Within the components, the
picture was mixed as crude experienced a build, while products witnessed a draw.
US commercial crude stocks saw a build of 5.7 mb in February following a small
build in January to stand at 363.8 mb. At this level, US crude oil commercial stocks
finished the month at 7.8 mb or 2.2% above the five-year average, while they were
21.1 mb, or 5.5% lower than one year ago at the same time.
The build of crude commercial stocks was driven by lower crude refinery runs, which
fell by around 130,000 b/d to stand at 15.2 mb/d. Refineries operated at 87.3% of
capacity, down from 88.6% the previous month. However, refineries were running at
3.8 percentage points (pp) higher than the same period last year. While total US
commercial crude oil stocks rose in February, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma,
dropped by 8.1 mb, ending the month at 32.1 mb. This draw puts Cushing stocks at a
16% deficit to the five-year average. Compared to the same month last year, Cushing
stocks in February were 18.4 mb lower.
Total product stocks fell further by 4.5 mb in January for the fifth consecutive month,
ending the month at 671.0 mb. With this fall, US product stocks stood at 38.8 mb or
5.5% below a year ago at the same time, representing a deficit of 39.8 mb or 5.6%
below the seasonal norm. Within products, the bulk of the decline came from gasoline,
propylene and residual fuel oil, while distillates and jet fuel oil saw a build.
Gasoline stocks declined by 6.0 mb in February, reversing the build of the last two
months. At 229.0 mb, gasoline stocks are 2.2 mb or 0.9% higher than the same period
a year ago, and they remained 1.8 mb or 0.8% above the latest five-year average. A
rise of around 50,000 b/d in apparent demand was behind the stock draw in gasoline
inventories. However, higher gasoline output limited a further drop in gasoline stocks.
Distillate stocks rose slightly by 0.7 mb in February after declining by 13.5 mb a
month earlier to stand at 114.5 mb. At this level, distillate stocks stood at 7.4 mb or
6.0% below a year ago and remained at 29.0 mb or 20.3% lower than the seasonal
average. The build in middle distillate stocks came mainly from lower apparent
demand, which declined by around 350,000 b/d to average 3.6 mb/d. The distillate
market is expected to remain tight on increasing refinery maintenance, although
demand growth should ease as temperatures improve.
Residual fuel oil stocks fell by 1.0 mb to end February at 36.9 mb, which is 0.8 mb or
2.2% lower than a year ago and 0.7 mb or 1.9% below the seasonal norm. In contrast,
jet fuel stocks rose by 1.8 mb to stand at 37.9 mb, but down by 2.6 mb or 6.4%from the
same month a year ago and 0.7 mb or 1.9% below the latest five-year average.
Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks rose by 2.2 mb in January, reversing the fall of
6.1 mb last month. At 155.9 mb, Japanese oil inventories are 11.4 mb or 6.8% below a
year ago and 13.3 mb or 7.8% lower than the five-year average. Within the
components, both crude and products rose by 1.1 mb each.
Japanese commercial crude oil stocks rose in January, reversing the previous
month’s stock draw, to stand at 89.2 mb. At this level, they are 10.1 mb or 10.2% below
a year ago at the same time and 9.2 mb or 9.3% below the five-year average. The
stock build in crude oil was driven by higher crude imports, which rose by around
130,000 b/d or 3.3%, to average nearly 4.0 mb/d. At this level, crude imports were still
1.6% lower than last year at the same time. Refinery throughput saw a minor increase
in January, averaging 3.7 mb/d. At this level, they were in line with last year at the
same time. Japanese refiners were running at 86.3% of capacity in January, around
0.8 pp higher than in the previous month, and 2.6 pp more than in the same period one
year ago. Direct crude burning in power plants saw an increase of 12.5% in January
compared with the previous month, averaging 263.8 tb/d, but was still 6.5% lower than
the same period last year.
Japan’s total product inventories saw a build of 1.1 mb in January, reversing the
declines of the last fourth months, to stand at 66.7 mb. At this level, product stocks
showed a deficit of 1.3 mb or 2.0% compared with one year ago at the same time and
remained below the five-year average by a deficit of 4.1 mb or 5.8%. Lower domestic
sales, which fell by 190,000 b/d or 4.9% in January, averaging 3.7 mb/d, were behind
the build in product inventories. At this level, Japanese oil product sales were also
2.4% lower than a year earlier. A 13% increase in oil product imports also contributed
to the build in product inventories. With the exception of distillates, all products
witnessed a build, with the bulk coming from gasoline.
Gasoline stocks rose by 1.1 mb in January, ending the month at 12.0 mb, which is
1.1 mb or 8.7% less than the same time last year and 1.6 mb or 12.0% below the
five-year average. A decline of 12.8% in domestic sales was behind this stock build.
Lower gasoline production limited a further build in gasoline stocks.
Distillate stocks fell by 1.1 mb in January for the fifth consecutive month to finish at
31.1 mb, which is 2.1 mb or 7.3% above the same period a year ago and 0.5 mb and
1.6% higher than the seasonal average. Within distillate components, gasoil and jet fuel oil stocks rose, while kerosene dropped. In January, gasoil inventories rose by
10.2% on the back of lower domestic sales, which declined by nearly 12.5%. Jet fuel
stocks also rose by 10.2%, driven by higher production combined with lower domestic
sales. In the contrast, kerosene stocks fell by 4.9% on the back of lower imports as
domestic sales remained almost unchanged.
Naphtha stocks rose by 0.6 mb, finishing the month of January at 8.6 mb, indicating a
deficit of 1.0 mb or 10.2% compared with a year ago and 1.7 mb or 16.8% below the
seasonal norm. The stock build came mainly from higher imports, which increased by
nearly 30%. Relatively higher domestic sales limited a further build in naphtha
inventories.
Total residual fuel oil stocks went up by 0.4 mb to end the month of January at
14.9 mb, which is 1.3 mb or 8.2% less than one year ago and 1.2 mb or 7.4% lower
than the five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A stocks rose by
13.1%, while and fuel oil B.C declined by 2.4%. The build in fuel oil A stocks could be
attributed to lower domestic sales, which dropped by 6.9%. The fall in fuel oil B.C
stocks is attributed to higher domestic consumption combined with lower imports.
China
The latest information showed Chinese total oil commercial inventories rose
strongly by 28.1 mb in January, following a build of 2.2 mb in December, to stand at
388.1 mb. Within the components, both commercial crude and products rose by 8.2 mb
and 19.9 mb, respectively. This build in crude commercial stocks came mainly from
increased crude imports, which reached a new record high. Indeed, Chinese crude
imports rose by 5% in January from the previous month, averaging 6.6 mb/d.
Total product stocks in China also went up in January, with the bulk of the build
coming from an increase of 16.2 mb of diesel inventories. Gasoline and kerosene
stocks rose by 2.9 mb and 0.8 mb, respectively. The build in product stocks came from
higher outputs as China maintained high throughputs in January.
Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of January, product stocks in Singapore rose by 1.4 mb, reversing the fall
of the last four months, to stand at 39.5 mb. Despite this build, product stocks in
Singapore represented a deficit of 3.5 mb or 8.1% over the same period in the previous
year. Within products, the picture was mixed; light and middle distillates saw a build,
while residual fuel oil experienced a drop.
Light distillate stocks rose by 0.7 mb in January, following a build of 0.5 mb in
December, to stand at 11.5 mb. At this level, light distillate stocks stood 0.7 mb or 6.6%
higher than one year ago during the same period. The build mainly took place in the
first three weeks of the month as higher volumes were shipped to Singapore, mainly
from China, India and South Korea. The last week of the month saw inventories
declining as shipments went down by almost half from the previous week.
Middle distillate stocks also rose by 2.5 mb in January, ending the month at 10.4 mb,
down by 1.1 mb or 9.5% from the same period last year. This build was mainly driven
by higher automotive diesel imports from South Korea. Residual fuel oil fell for the
second consecutive month, declining by 1.7 mb. At 17.5 mb, fuel oil stocks remained at
3.1 mb or 15% lower than the same month one year ago. This drop was driven by
lower imports, which declined more than half during the last week of the month from the
previous week.
Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) rose by 5.7 mb in January
for the second consecutive month. At 33.6 mb, product stocks in ARA stood at 1.1 mb
or 3.3% above a year ago at the same time. Within products, all saw a build, with the
bulk coming from fuel oil.
Fuel oil stocks rose by 2.1 mb to end the month of January at 6.6 mb. With this build,
fuel oil inventories stood at 1.1 mb or 19.3% higher than one year ago at the same
time. This build was driven mainly by higher imports. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.6 mb
in January, following a build of 1.4 mb in the previous month, to stand at 8.4 mb, which
is 2.2 mb or 35% higher than the same period last year. This build was driven by the
anticipation of rising gasoline demand in coming months. Gasoil stocks also rose by
1.2 mb, ending January at 13.6 mb. At this level, gasoil stocks stood at 3.8 mb or 22%
below the previous year. Naphtha stocks also went up by 0.5 mb to finish January at
1.4 mb, which is 0.5 mb or nearly 50% lower than in the same month a year earlier.
